This morning, I looked at last night's Ethereum spot ETF data, which directly surged to 6 million coins held, with one client from BlackRock consuming 3.27 million coins. Although they have slowed down a bit on Bitcoin, on the Ethereum side, it’s like they entered a mad dog mode, sweeping more than 70,000 coins in the previous trading day. The net buying volume of Americans in Ethereum is 8 times that of Bitcoin; even retail investors are aware that funds are rapidly flowing into Ethereum. The desire to trade is at its peak, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale all seeing net inflows, clearly indicating that the market's 'darling' has changed.
Regarding interest rate cut expectations, the market basically believes that a cut in September is certain; not cutting would be unreasonable. Old Powell's current situation is like an old duck being roasted over a fire—if he cuts, he will be scolded as a puppet of the establishment, but if he doesn’t cut, he will be criticized by the market.
Back to the market, Bitcoin has directly set a new high, and the support level of 117K has been verified as solidly effective, completely in line with my previous predictions. We are just one step away from the first rebound target of the deviation channel at 125K. As long as it stabilizes and doesn’t break, the probability of moving higher is very great. Last night, Bitcoin formed a golden cross on the 4-hour level, and in the latter half of the night, it surged directly; the previous small pullback was merely a false dip—both the lows and highs are rising. If the defense level dips, add positions; the strategy of buying low remains sound.
This round is still led by spot trading, not the previous kind of contract-driven false heat. Wall Street institutions and major players are working together to support the market, with spot funds steadily accumulating, making the situation more solid. 130K to 140K is still possible; Bitcoin hasn’t had significant pullbacks because institutions are firmly supporting the bottom, and the chip structure has already been rejuvenated. As for how institutions will sell, who will buy, and how much they can absorb at a certain volume in the future, that's a matter for later. Right now, it’s a phase where institutions are mindlessly accumulating chips, and when they stop, it will signal a retreat, so this is still just the beginning.
The monthly trend of Ethereum, in fact, I analyzed it last month. The monthly golden cross compared to the previous movement of 2440, my prediction for this wave of increase has never changed. Bears should be careful, don't stubbornly resist; personal strength is insignificant in the face of trends. Once Ethereum reaches 4900, it will be a historical high, with no reference point afterward, and no one can guarantee how high it will go. Currently, there isn’t even a decent correction signal on the chart, and those who happily opened shorts last week probably didn't even set a defense level. To put it simply, it's all based on feelings.
Bears need to pay attention: if a direct cut of 50 basis points occurs around the 18th of next month, followed by a real rally in October-November, it will truly be concerning. As for me personally, I still won’t blindly chase after short-term gains; I’ll only take what’s visible in front of me. Remember this: what you think is impossible is just what you think; when the market goes crazy, it won’t care about the bears’ sentiments.
