【ETH Rocket to the Top! Is $4711 the "Final Push" or "In-flight Refueling"?】

Summary: ETH has surged 56% in the last 30 days, with prices hitting the upper Bollinger Band and approaching a historical trading vacuum. Bulls are using high leverage to "squeeze shorts," but the 4x sell wall and net outflow of contract funds suggest that the "trap for bulls" could end at any moment—short-term, either ride the trend to the top or wait for a pullback to the value zone to re-enter.

Key Ranges and Trading Volume

1. Value Anchor (POC): 3639 —— The densest trading zone in the last two weeks, a lifeline for bulls; breaking below this indicates a trend reversal.

2. High Volume Node (HVN): 3763-3816, 3586-3674 —— If the price pulls back to these levels, it is likely to find support and bounce back.

3. Low Volume Node (LVN): 4721-4730, 4544-4553 —— Only "thin" resistance remains above; a breakthrough could quickly sweep up to 4800; if it falls below, it could slide to 4508.

4. 70% Trading Zone: 3550-4313 —— Current price is at the upper edge +1.3×ATR, indicating short-term overbought conditions.

Momentum Verification

• Up Volume in the LVN 4721 zone is only 21%, indicating a "false breakout" high-risk area.

• Up Volume in the HVN 3763 zone is 46%, showing a balance between bulls and bears, waiting for a pullback to confirm buying.

• Contract OI increased by 21% in 7 days but with a net outflow of -3.1M, indicating leveraged bulls are counter-trading at high levels; beware of "long liquidation".

Strategy (15m-1h level)

Aggressive: Short lightly at current price 4710-4720, stop loss at 4745 (upper edge of LVN +0.5ATR), target 4650/4600, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8.

Conservative: Wait for a pullback to HVN 4650-4670, then go long after seeing a 15m reversal candle + Up Volume > 55%, stop loss at 4620, target 4720/4750, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.3.

Cautious: Go short after breaking below POC 3639, re-enter at 3665-3680, stop loss at 3710, target 3550, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.

Risk Warning: If the daily close stabilizes above 4800 and contracts turn to net inflow, the short strategy will fail, and a reversal to long is advised.

LP Market Making Suggestions

Range: Market-making USDT dual currencies at 4650-4720, benefiting from high volatility fees; if the price drops to HVN 3763-3816, consider lowering the range to continue providing liquidity and earning mean reversion profits.

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Thanks: “Silicon-based Liquidity” for providing the foundational large model!

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$ETH #以太坊创历史新高倒计时