The commercial dollar closed the session this Tuesday (12) down 1.06%, quoted at R$ 5.3864, the lowest value since June 2024. The decline was driven by inflation data in Brazil and the United States that reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts this year. On the same day, the Ibovespa advanced 1.69%, closing at 137,911 points. While traditional assets reacted with significant gains, the cryptocurrency market showed a mixed performance, with Ethereum (ETH) registering relevant gains and Bitcoin (BTC) operating in slight retraction.
Relief in exchange rates and optimism in the stock market
The depreciation of the dollar occurred since the start of trading, intensifying throughout the day. The U.S. currency was traded close to R$ 5.41 in the morning and reached a low of R$ 5.38 at the close. In the tourism market, the drop was even greater, with the quotation falling by about 2%. The improvement in the scenario was attributed to a combination of controlled inflation and the prospect of a reduction in international interest rates, which increased the attractiveness of the real against other currencies.
The Ibovespa followed the movement and had consistent gains throughout the session. The index even surpassed 138,000 points at its intraday high, supported by the appreciation of stocks in the banking, commodities, and energy sectors. The financial volume traded exceeded R$ 23 billion, indicating an appetite for risk from investors.
Inflation slowing down and expectations for the Fed
In the United States, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July, in line with projections and below the previous result. Over the 12 months, inflation was at 2.7%, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may start a cycle of interest rate cuts in the next September meeting. In Brazil, the IPCA also came in below expectations, with an increase of 0.26% for the month, slowing compared to the previous month, despite the pressure from rising electricity bills.
The scenario widened the differential between Brazilian interest rates, currently at 15% per year, and rates in the United States, favoring carry trade operations and increasing the flow of foreign capital into the local market. The prospect of a reduction in the cost of credit in the U.S. also tends to benefit risk assets, such as stocks traded on B3.
Cryptocurrencies follow their own trajectory
In the crypto assets market, the day was marked by distinct movements among the main assets. Bitcoin recorded a slight decline, trading close to US$ 119,900, after fluctuating within a narrow range during the day. The most traded cryptocurrency in the world maintained its market capitalization above US$ 2.3 trillion, but lost some of the momentum seen the previous week.
Ethereum, for its part, showed strong appreciation, surpassing US$ 4,400. The movement was driven by institutional purchases and the positive expectation surrounding the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by the asset. This performance led to Ethereum's share in the total market value of cryptocurrencies approaching 13%.
Despite the advance of Ethereum, the crypto market as a whole showed a slight retraction, reflecting specific adjustments after weeks of strong highs. The global capitalization of crypto assets remained close to US$ 4 trillion, with high liquidity and constant interest from long-term investors.
Discrepancy between markets
The contrast between the strong appreciation of traditional assets and the mixed performance of cryptocurrencies reflects the difference in factors driving each segment. While the exchange rate and the stock market respond directly to macroeconomic data and expectations of monetary policy, the crypto market maintains its own dynamics, influenced by technological advances, regulation, and the flow of capital from specialized investors.
Still, the behavior of this Tuesday showed that, even with different trajectories, both markets remain interconnected by the global appetite for higher-risk assets, especially in a scenario of lower interest rates ahead.
The article 'Dollar falls to lowest level in 14 months and Stock Market rises; Ethereum advances and Bitcoin retreats' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
