The Bitcoin bull cycle is approaching its final phase after 997 days since the cycle bottom on November 21, 2022.
This suggests that the peak may occur within 70 days, likely between October 15 and November 15, 2025.
Bitcoin cycle peak in October–November 2025
In a recent analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycles, analyst CryptoBirb shared some insightful observations.
Historical data presented by this analyst highlights the duration of past bull cycles: 2010–2011 (~350 days); 2011–2013 (~746 days); 2015–2017 (~1,068 days); 2018–2021 (~1,061 days). If history repeats, the current cycle should last about 1,060–1,100 days.
So far, counting from the bottom of the previous cycle on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin's rally has already lasted 997 days and is approaching its final phase. The peak may arise in the next 70 days if history follows the same pattern.
Bitcoin cycles. Source: CryptoBirb on X
"The chances of a peak are also higher in the next 3 months, with the ideal window between October 15 and November 15, 2025," highlighted CryptoBirb.
Optimizing the cycle peak based on Bitcoin halving events generates a similar projection. The halving from 2012 to the peak in 2013 took about 366 days; from 2016 to 2017, about 526 days; and from 2020 to 2021, about 548 days. Based on this, the halving period from 2024 to the next peak could be around 518–580 days.
"This places the next peak between October 19 and November 20, 2025 (518–580 days)," added CryptoBirb.
To reinforce this view, CryptoBirb highlighted that, in past cycles, October and November have often been the months of the most significant Bitcoin growth, especially on important dates such as Monday (October 20, October 27) and Wednesday (October 22, October 29). Among these, October 22 is the most likely window for a price breakout.
Average return per day of the week. Source: CryptoBirb
The overlap between the four-year cycle of the U.S. presidential election and Bitcoin halving further reinforces the hypothesis that the cycle peak will occur between mid-October and mid-November 2025. This pattern has been repeatedly observed when political factors, combined with supply scarcity, drive strong rallies.
"The chances of the next ATH are heavily concentrated between October 15 and November 15, 2025 — where history, mathematics, and market momentum align. My guess is that we won't be too far from the fourth week of October," said CryptoBirb.
This aligns with the view of the CEO of Alphractal, who believes that the Bitcoin cycle remains intact and is highly likely to peak in October, but warns investors to prepare for sharp volatility before the top is reached.
Bear market in 2026
From a market psychology perspective, the pre-peak phase often sees extreme euphoria, increasing trading volumes, and maximum search interest for Bitcoin-related keywords. This phase can also present sharp short-term corrections to 'shake out' weak investors before prices rise.
Bitcoin has already been experiencing strong upward momentum along with a recent corrective pullback.
Bitcoin bear market. Source: CryptoBirb
After the peak, historical trends indicate that bear markets typically last between 370 and 410 days, with an average drop of about –66%. If this scenario repeats, a downtrend could begin in 2026, starting a phase of deep correction before the next accumulation period.
That’s why many analysts recommend an exit strategy before the market reverses. Some investors have already planned to withdraw their crypto investments before December to fully secure their profits.
However, as BeInCrypto previously reported, some experts believe that the Bitcoin cycle is 'dead'. Predicting risks has become more difficult, as a potential institutional panic could redefine future bear markets.
The article Analyst reveals when the current Bitcoin cycle will peak was first seen in BeInCrypto Brazil.
