Event Review ⚡

Within just a few minutes, the price of ETH experienced a violent fluctuation. The market suddenly saw capital entering around 20:25, with ETH rapidly rising from $4288 to $4381, and then breaking through key technical levels, peaking at $4428, before falling back to around $4386 due to profit-taking and oscillation adjustments. This process not only reflects a technical breakout but is also closely related to the US CPI data being lower than expected and the rising market risk appetite, with the entire market movement marked by a dual imprint of capital competition and technical correction.

Timeline ⏰

  • 20:25
    Funds rapidly entered the market, and the price of ETH rose from $4288 to $4381 within 15 minutes, an increase of 2.17%, indicating a strong technical breakout signal.

  • 20:30
    The US CPI data shows an annual rate of 2.7%, lower than most expectations. This data has alleviated market concerns about tightening policies and has boosted the sentiment for risk assets. At this time, the ETH price broke through the $4350 barrier.

  • 20:41～20:44
    With market sentiment further rising, the price of ETH climbed continuously, breaking through the $4400 mark in a short time, reaching a high of $4428, indicating that institutional funds are continuously entering and testing high levels.

  • 20:50
    With positive news driving the market, there were some signals of profit-taking, and the price of ETH began to adjust briefly, undergoing oscillation and consolidation.

  • 21:09
    The price of ETH adjusted to about $4386.02, and market sentiment turned cautious, awaiting further confirmation of subsequent trends.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The main driving factors for this round of violent fluctuations in ETH include two core reasons:

  1. Macroeconomic Benefits
    The US July CPI data recorded an annual rate of 2.7%, far lower than some market expectations. This data has alleviated market concerns about persistent high inflation and tightening policies, prompting an increase in investor risk appetite, supporting a long-term bullish structure for Bitcoin, and causing some funds to flow out of Bitcoin toward mainstream currencies including ETH.

  2. Technical Fund Rebalancing and Order Consolidation
    There has been automatic execution of high-frequency strategies and reallocation of institutional funds within the market. Technical indicators show a significant bullish trend in the short term, with funds rapidly entering and pushing prices to break through key resistance levels, but there is also profit-taking at high levels, highlighting the risks of oscillation and consolidation.

Technical Analysis 📊

The above technical analysis is based on Binance's ETH/USDT perpetual contract 45-minute K-line data, with the main findings as follows:

  • Overbought Signal Obvious
    The J value in the current K-line is in the overbought range, indicating a high risk of short-term market correction.

  • Indicator Divergence
    The KDJ indicator shows a divergence phenomenon, while the OBV indicator has crossed below its moving average, suggesting that some selling signals are emerging.

  • Abnormal Trading Volume
    In 15 minutes, trading volume surged by 310.49%, but at the same time, price fluctuations occurred, indicating the possibility of panic selling. The trading volume and average volume in the short term are significantly higher than average levels, indicating extremely high market activity.

  • Moving Averages Arranged Well but Approaching Upper Band
    The price of ETH is currently above the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, as well as EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, EMA120 moving averages, with all moving averages arranged in a bullish manner, indicating a strong upward trend. However, the price is approaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which may suggest overbought pressure, necessitating caution regarding short-term correction risks.

  • Large Orders and Large Transaction Situation
    In the last hour, the total explosive order amount across the network was approximately $10 million, of which short positions accounted for 87%. At the same time, the net inflow of funds reached $80 million, indicating the intensity of capital competition.

Market Outlook 🚀

Looking ahead to the future market, ETH may continue to operate within a volatile range in the short term:

  • If the market can stabilize above $4400, indicating a restoration of bullish confidence, it is expected to reach higher levels, such as $4450 and above.

  • Conversely, if there is further profit-taking or a technical pullback, it may break below the short-term support level of $4,200, and traders need to pay attention to risk control.

  • The market is still influenced by macroeconomic and policy expectations, coupled with intense competition between institutional and retail funds in high-frequency rebalancing. Volatility will continue in the short term, but the medium to long-term trend is expected to continue upward based on solid fundamentals and positive data.

  • Investors should maintain a cautious attitude in this volatile market, focus on key support and resistance levels, adjust positions timely, avoid overbuying, and await clearer trend signals from market sentiment and technical indicators.

Overall, ETH is currently at the intersection of technical and capital competition. Investors should integrate macro data and technical indicators, closely monitor changes in market sentiment and trading volume to achieve the best balance between risk and return.

#ETH