I recently analyzed the market prospects for Dogecoin (DOGE) and believe that reaching the $1 target will not be easy. Although speculative fervor may drive up prices, the current market conditions are not mature enough to support Dogecoin achieving a parabolic breakout.
How can Dogecoin reach $1?
To reach $1, Ethereum (ETH) needs to break through its historical high from 2021, confirming an entry into a bull market; the cycle window after Bitcoin's halving (approximately 486 days, around August 18, 2025) needs to provide historical opportunities for a rebound; global M2 money supply also needs to continue expanding to support risk appetite. Only with these conditions in place does Dogecoin have a chance to hit $1.
Currently, Ethereum has broken through $4,000, but it is still constrained by the dual resistance of the May 2021 high and the historical high. Dogecoin's own price trend is also not optimistic, as recent topping candlestick patterns suggest a risk of reversal, a similar pattern often precedes corrections.
Dogecoin is still in a highly volatile consolidation phase.
There may be a false breakout in both directions, rather than a clear upward trend. In terms of liquidity, the M2 indicator shows short-term rebound opportunities, but it is not a decisive factor. Historically, even when M2 rises, the crypto market can still enter a bear market. Therefore, my judgment on M2 is 'useful but not absolute.'
In summary, Dogecoin may fluctuate around $0.30 in the short term, but to truly move towards $1, we need to wait for Ethereum to break through, the halving cycle window to open, and liquidity to continue supporting it. Currently, the DOGE price is $0.22, and it's still a long way from 'moon landing.' Investors need to remain cautious and closely monitor the overall trend of a multi-asset portfolio.
