The day before yesterday, CPI was favorable, last night PPI was unfavorable, and Trump claimed there was no need to worry about inflation, which is obviously a man-made washout; it is expected that there will still be interest rate cuts in September. Last night's market fluctuations were intense, and after the new high, a decent correction finally appeared.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 224,845 people were liquidated, with a total amount of $1.035 billion. Long positions liquidated amounted to $873 million, and short positions liquidated amounted to $162 million.
A large portion of positions has been liquidated; these declines will psychologically test you and also indicate that there is still some strength present. Try to reduce leverage on core positions or avoid leverage altogether.
In a bull market, there are often corrections. Don't panic, maintain confidence; August is gradually improving.
Last night, the market adjusted slightly, and contract players were in despair. Looking back at the last bull market, there was about a 30% monthly drop to clear leverage, which is not unusual. Now there are more institutions, and ordinary investors can't afford a whole Bitcoin; they may regret not accumulating more Ethereum in the coming years.
Most people are not investing but gambling, blindly following trends and chasing hotspots, making money without knowing why, and complaining when losing. The financial market is not suitable for 90% of ordinary people; if you can survive, you are a dragon among people.
In the current market, it's that familiar Friday near the opening drop rhythm!
According to past patterns, generally after a significant drop, around early Sunday morning, there can be a rebound to fill the gap. This strategy currently has an estimated success rate of 70%+, let's see this weekend!
First, let's talk about the reason for Bitcoin's crash last night.
1. PPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in September.
2. The number of unemployment claims in the U.S. this week is lower than expected, leaning towards bearish
3. U.S. stocks opened lower, leading the cryptocurrency market to drop as well.
4. The net outflow of U.S. spot ETFs was $293 million, ending six consecutive days of net inflows.
5. After Bitcoin reached a historical high, profit-takers cashed out, leading to a crash.
Then to answer: Why can't Ethereum drop?
Looking at the total open contracts across the network, it's the first time I've seen nearly $1 trillion in volume, and most of it is shorting ETH, so ETH can't drop in the short term, and it may even create a new high to liquidate these shorts before dropping.
The open contracts for altcoins have reached a historical high, indicating a surge in market speculation activities; short-term altcoins are likely to experience sharp fluctuations in leveraged contracts.
BTC
Bitcoin is still in a bullish trend; yesterday's sharp drop weakened short-term bullish momentum but did not change the trend. The pace will slow down, and uncertainty will increase. The 1H and 4H charts show that the sharp drop stopped at 1HMA250, but the rebound is restricted by 1HMA30 and 4HMA30; short-term selling opportunities may arise here. Future movements need to be judged based on real-time structure.
Strategy:
Focus on support at 116960-116370, 114500; in case of a sharp drop, you can buy at 113990 and below (with a 5% interval). Resistance levels are 119412-120118, 125000. In the past few days, it repeatedly broke through 119200 only to be pushed down again; currently, the appeal of BTC's main capital is indeed not strong enough!
ETH
Ethereum is under significant pressure at 4800, similar to the 4600 defense line being attacked, the main force has been repelled, but the bullish trend remains unchanged. The 4-hour chart shows that after a short-term surge, it fell back, precisely touching the MA30 moving average, forming a double-bottom with strong rebound strength, indicating that there is capital buying the dip. The fluctuations in the past two days seem like a washout before a new high, aiming to clear contract leverage.
Strategy:
Focus on support at 4250, 4100, with temporary resistance set at 4730. Last night, ETH's first wave was around 4535, closing eyes to go long, taking profits in batches at 4600+4700, and the early morning pullback and previous lows formed a decreasing volume bottom divergence or a second dip, all standard signals to get in. This internal group will discuss this idea, but those who shouldn't have entered still did, while those who haven't learned the system remain stagnant!
After a high-level correction, you can buy the dip; mainstream altcoins that have dropped over 4-6% present buying opportunities; such chances are rare. Today's focus is on restoring short-term indicators, preparing for the next battle.
Gossip: Bloomberg's 'Billionaire Index' reveals that Sun Yuchen's crypto assets
TRX: 60 billion pieces, accounting for 63% of the supply
BTC: About 17,000 pieces
ETH: About 224,000 pieces
USDT: About 700,000 pieces
Based on the current price, the total value is approximately $24 billion. However, 'Sun Gua' denies the accuracy of the data, suing Bloomberg and seeking an injunction. Regardless of the truth, seeing the leopard through the tube, Brother Sun is invincible, wishing Brother Sun a successful lawsuit!
