📊 This Week's Focus: CPI Data + ETF Fund Influx, Market May Face New Turn
1️⃣ Macroeconomic Background
The US CPI will be announced this week, with the market expecting an annual growth rate of 2.8%. Lower than expected = 9-month interest rate cut probability skyrockets (predicted to reach 86%), favorable for risk assets.
Trump extends tariffs on China by 90 days, BTC broke through $122,000 on the same day and then corrected, showing the short-term sentiment impact of the news.
Institutional funds continue to flow in: Spot ETH ETF saw a single-day net inflow surpassing $1.02 billion, with a cumulative inflow exceeding $10.8 billion.
2️⃣ Technical and Structural Observations
$BTC : Key support at 118,500–119,000 (CME gap area), resistance at 122,000–123,000 (previous high).
$ETH : Breakthrough of the key area 4,200–4,300, if it stabilizes above, 4,500 is the first target.
$SOL : Volume increased significantly after returning to $200, with funds visibly flowing back to Layer1 hotspots.
$DOGE: Bounced along the long-term uptrend line, referencing a similar trend in 2024, still has potential for 60% upside.
3️⃣ This Week's Operational Strategy (Spot Trading)
Conservatives:
Reduce positions by 20–30% before CPI announcement, avoiding volatility at the moment of data release.
Hold BTC at 118,500 and continue to hold ETH at 4,200.
For altcoins like SOL and DOGE, only retain core positions, waiting for signals to add after the data.
Aggressives:
Buy BTC in batches at 118,500–119,000, and increase positions if CPI is lower than expected.
Buy ETH at 4,250–4,300 on pullback, targeting 4,500.
If SOL breaks 210 with volume, it can be chased, and DOGE should pay attention to ETF-related catalysts accelerating the market.
🎯 Perspective:
ETH has become the core driving force of this round of market, and the altcoin season depends on whether BTC.D can drop below 60%. CPI is the detonator for this week—lower than expected = full risk-on, higher than expected = short-term retreat.
