The price of XRP rose about 10% last week, following the broader crypto rally, as the total market value surpassed $4.13 trillion.
However, the rise also attracted sellers, and on-chain data suggests that short-term investors may already be realizing profits.
Short-term investors begin to exit
HODL Waves, a metric that groups coins by the time they have been held, shows two main cohorts shrinking rapidly.
On July 20, wallets holding XRP for 3 to 6 months controlled about 12.07% of the supply. On August 10, that number fell to 8.93%. The group of 1 to 3 months XRP wallets tells the same story, dropping from 6.78% on August 1 to 5.83% at the time of this analysis.
The monthly accumulation of the 1 to 3 months cohort peaked when the price of XRP was around $2.77. As they continue to sell their holdings, the narrative of profit-seeking gains clear validation.
XRP Price and Exit of Short-term Investors: Glassnode
HODL Waves are important because they reveal investor behavior over time. A decline in the share of recent investors usually means they are selling, often to secure profits after a price increase. This can signal a change in short-term sentiment before the broader market trend shifts.
Exchange reserves indicate more selling pressure
When we connect the drop in HODL Wave to exchange reserve data, the picture becomes clearer. In the last week, XRP reserves on exchanges have been increasing. Historically, rising reserves combined with the decline of short-term HODL groups have preceded price pullbacks.
XRP Price and Increase of Reserves on Exchanges: Cryptoquant
We saw this pattern recently on July 22, when reserves surged and the price of XRP fell from around $3.55 to $3.17 in one session. The logic is simple: coins moving to exchanges are easier to sell. When this happens while certain groups of investors are shrinking, it often means profit-taking is underway.
XRP price structure is still optimistic; for now
On the 4-hour chart, the price of XRP still respects an ascending triangle pattern. The optimistic scenario has clear levels to watch. Resistance is at $3.34; a breakout above may pave the way to $3.57 and the historic high near $3.66.
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView
On the downside, support remains at $3.15. A drop below this would bring $3.07 into play and make the short-term structure bearish.
For traders, the current thesis that we may see short-term consolidation before another rise is invalidated if the price closes above $3.34. Until then, the combination of profit-taking signals and increasing exchange reserves suggests caution.
In summary, the XRP chart still favors the optimists, but the behavior of short-term investors and the increase in reserves indicate that momentum may stall before any rush to new highs. Traders should watch $3.15 on the downside and $3.34 on the upside for the next big move.
The article XRP Optimism Hits Sales: Will the Price Hold? was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
