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Most data-driven, up-to-date forecast for Bitcoin’s potential price action following the 2024 halving, based on historical cycle patterns:
1. Expected Bull Peak (ATH Range & Timing)
Analysts observe that previous bull peaks occurred around 518 to 550 days after the halving. Applying this to the 2024 halving:
518 days post-halving → September 2025
550 days post-halving → October 2025
Extending ~30 days, a November 2025 peak is also plausible .
Price forecasts for this peak vary among credible sources:
~$150,000 — Cointelegraph's "tick-tock fractal" model .
$150K–$170K — AInvest analysts .
$180K–$200K — Investopedia collective estimates, based on institutional demand and supply bottlenecks .
Up to ~$243,000 — ARK Invest extrapolating past cycle multipliers (15.4× cycle-low price) .
MarketVector expects around $150K, based on 2.3× November benchmark levels .
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn sees potential between $150K (first half 2025) and $185K (year-end) .
2. Expected Bear Market Depth (Post-Peak Correction)
Historical patterns since 2013 show that after the bull peaks:
Bitcoin tends to endure 70%–85% corrections from the ATH before finding a new cycle low.
Examples:
2013 peak (~$1,150) fell to ~$200 → ~–83%.
2017 high (~$20K) dropped to ~$3.2K → ~–84%.
2021 peak (~$69K) collapsed to ~$15.5K → ~–78%.
If applied to a 2025 ATH at $150K–$200K, the correction zone could land around $30K–$45K.
Summary Table
Event Timeframe Price Range Forecast
Bull Market Peak:
>Sep–Nov 2025 $150K–$200K
>(possibly up to ~$243K)
>Bear Market Trough Level ~12–14 months >post-peak ~$30K–$45K
Caveats & Context
These projections are based on historical analogs (halving cycles, on-chain models) — not guarantees.
Key drivers: institutional adoption, ETF inflows, macro-monetary trends.
Risks include regulatory headwinds, macroeconomic shocks, or shifts in market structure disrupting past rhythms.
