Event Overview
On August 7, President Trump announced he would nominate Stephen Miran, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve as a Fed governor.
This move has sparked heated discussions in the market, focusing on his political background, policy inclinations, and potential impacts.
📊 Core Market Views
1. Controversy and Doubts
Lack of experience: Natalliance's Brenner bluntly states that Miran has neither market experience nor a business background, being a 'purely political figure,' which makes nomination unlikely to pass the Senate.
Strong political color: Some are concerned he will try to 'reshape the Fed,' but the execution will be difficult.
2. Actual Impact May Be Limited
PGIM's Tipp: Historically, Fed officials from the government do not necessarily follow the president's orders, and the ultimate impact may be less than expected.
Oxford Economics' Sweet: The significance for monetary policy direction is minimal, key will be whether confirmation can happen before the September meeting. Recent rate cut expectations stem from economic data, not personnel changes.
3. Policy Leaning: Dovish
Mischler's Di Galoma: Miran's inclination towards rate cuts is favorable for the market.
BNY's Velis: An unexpected choice, but clearly dovish; the recess appointment can bypass Senate approval, serving until the end of the next Congress.
Hatfield: Despite controversial remarks, his main role is to increase pressure on Powell for rate cuts.
4. Market Expectations Have Been Priced In
Chandler: A September rate cut has become market consensus, with at least one more cut expected this year; Miran's nomination will not change the overall direction.
🎯 Key Signals
Short term: If confirmed before September, opposition votes may increase to three, but overall policy will still focus on rate cuts.
Mid-term: Miran's appointment may strengthen dovish voices, but the real focus is on the selection of the next Fed chair.
Long term: The impact of personnel appointments is limited, as the market already has expectations for the rate cut path.
Conclusion: Miran's nomination is more of a political maneuver than a policy turning point, with the market still focused on economic data and the next Fed chair.
Intra-day Focus: LNIK ASR FXS