At a macro level, San Francisco Fed President Daly clearly pointed out that the slowdown in the labor market and the short-term characteristics of inflationary pressures significantly increase the likelihood of policy adjustments by the Fed in the coming months. She emphasized that while tariffs may temporarily raise inflation, it is difficult to form a lasting impact, and current monetary policy remains restrictive. Coupled with the trend of economic slowdown, inflation is expected to continue to decline. Crucially, signs of weakness in the labor market have already emerged, and further deterioration could trigger a chain reaction, which serves as important evidence for supporting policy adjustments.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the data indicating economic slowdown is sufficiently clear, making it reasonable to initiate interest rate adjustments in the short term. He maintains the expectation of two rate cuts this year but also warns that if tariffs lead to a rebound in inflation, a pause in rate cuts or even rate hikes cannot be ruled out. In his view, actively adjusting interest rate policy is more effective in addressing economic uncertainty than passively waiting, and while unemployment data is important, the potential for adjustments must also be considered.
In the crypto market, multiple dynamics are worth noting. The Federal Reserve's latest report explores the possibility of establishing a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve using gold reserves to value returns, adding a new footnote to Bitcoin's strategic value.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance openly stated that he holds bitcoins and recognizes their properties as a tool for transactions and value storage in the modern digital age, further releasing positive signals for crypto assets.
The Ethereum ecosystem is also active. According to Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, since early June, the Ethereum treasury company and Ethereum spot ETFs have accumulated purchases equivalent to 1.6% of the current total ETH supply. StrategicETHReserve data shows that the total holdings of 64 reserve strategy companies with more than 100 ETH holdings have surpassed 3 million ETH, valued at approximately $10.87 billion, accounting for 2.52% of the total supply, with institutions like Bitmine and SharpLink Gaming leading in holdings.
At the exchange level, Binance's August reserve proof shows that the reserve ratios for BTC, USDT, ETH, and BNB are 102.96%, 102.27%, 100.67%, and 111.74%, respectively, maintaining overall stability. Compared to July, its ETH reserves have increased by 30,475 ETH, valued at approximately $11.16 million, while a significant reduction had occurred in June. This adjustment has attracted market attention to institutional holding strategies. In addition, Bitcoin reserves have also increased by about 3,087 BTC.
In the current market sentiment, the influence of macro data has weakened, and the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve has become a more critical variable. Although some players still worry about the risks of economic downturn, Trump's unconventional policy tendencies have brought uncertainty. To maintain his approval ratings, Trump may take extraordinary measures to delay economic recession, and this expectation is providing support to the market in the short term.
On-chain data shows a significant decrease in the turnover rate of crypto assets, reflecting a stabilization of player sentiment and a alleviation of economic concerns. Notably, in the early hours of August 6, a wallet that had held bitcoins for 7-10 years was activated, transferring out 3,230 BTC for a cash-out of $362 million, with a large amount of funds flowing into Coinbase and Binance. However, this whale cash-out did not trigger extensive reports from mainstream media, and the market did not experience panic, indicating that the current market has strong absorption capacity, and the redistribution of chips is proceeding smoothly.
URPD data shows that 1.49 million bitcoins are accumulated in the $103,500-$108,500 range, becoming the first strong support level; 1.618 million bitcoins are accumulated in the $93,500-$98,500 range, serving as the second strong support level.
In summary, Bitcoin is still oscillating in the $112,000-$117,000 range in the short term, with the market building strength for the next upward attack after digesting multiple messages. Expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, continued institutional positioning, and macroeconomic games together constitute the core driving force of the market. The detail that whale cash-outs did not stir ripples may be an important signal of market maturity, and the subsequent trends are worth looking forward to.