On the macro level, according to CME data, the market has basically anticipated that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has reached 94.4%, and the expectation of a cumulative cut to 50 basis points in October has also exceeded 67%. Clearly, a downward trend in interest rates is becoming a mainstream consensus.
San Francisco Fed President Daly stated in her latest speech that there are already signs of weakening in the current job market, and no long-term inflation pressure caused by tariffs has been found, indicating that the timing for interest rate cuts is 'not far off.' She believes that each FOMC meeting should be viewed as a window for adjusting interest rate policies, and two rate cuts within the year are a reasonable plan. Of course, she does not rule out the possibility of needing 'more' actions if the economy accelerates its weakening.
At the same time, the institutional dynamics in the crypto market are quietly releasing important signals. Marathon mined a total of 703 bitcoins in July, which is a slight decrease, but its holdings have exceeded 50,000 bitcoins. The CEO of Coinbase even predicts that the U.S. government may hold more than $600 billion in bitcoins in the future. Regarding Ethereum, BitMine announced that its ETH holdings have surpassed $2.9 billion, owning 830,000 ETH, making it a global leader.
In addition, Strategy spent $2.46 billion at the end of July to buy over 21,000 BTC, and DeFi Development also increased its holdings by 110,000 SOL, further intensifying its positioning in top assets. Large institutions are taking action, showing their recognition of the current market level.
However, there are differing voices regarding the funding situation. CoinShares reported that there was an outflow of $223 million from digital assets overall last week, with net outflows of over $400 million from Bitcoin. However, Ethereum still received a net inflow of $133 million, achieving 15 consecutive weeks of capital inflow, reflecting the market's confidence in ETH. Assets such as XRP and Solana also received positive capital support.
On-chain data shows that the turnover rate began to rebound at the beginning of this week, with short-term players, especially those at a loss, accelerating their exit. Market sentiment appears slightly cautious, but the long and short forces have not yet shown significant differentiation.
According to URPD data, the range of $103,500 to $108,500 has accumulated 1.497 million bitcoins, becoming the primary strong support level; while the range of $93,500 to $98,500 has accumulated 1.622 million bitcoins, serving as the second strong support level.
In summary, Bitcoin has once again stabilized at the key level of $112,000 in the short term. If this position can be effectively maintained, it indicates a high probability of trend continuation, allowing the market to raise its rebound target to around the upper channel line of $124,000. The area between $117,000 and $118,000 has accumulated about 1.1 million bitcoins, making it the most concentrated resistance level in the current market. If it cannot break through, it may fall back to around $112,000. Before breaking this pressure zone, Bitcoin is likely to continue oscillating between $112,000 and $117,000. This is not a bad thing; on the contrary, such range oscillation helps to wash out floating chips, stabilize market confidence, and accumulate more 'fuel' for the upcoming breakout.