Last night, Trump officially hammered down the 'reciprocal tariffs' policy—starting from 12:00 AM Eastern Time on August 7, the U.S. will impose a 10% to 41% tariff on goods from 69 countries or regions, with Canada and Mexico facing an additional 25% and 35% tax. This is not just talk; it's the real start of the chainsaw—has the blade of the trade war been sharpened again?
Trump's core logic is actually not complicated:
How much have you earned from me over the years? It's time to pay some interest.
You either open the market and buy my goods, or don't come in at all.
On the surface, this wave of tariffs aims to squeeze money out from outside, forcing global capital to 'reindustrialize' and return to the U.S. But I have a different opinion.
First of all, manufacturing will not return to the U.S. just because of tariffs?
Businesses are not philanthropists; they calculate costs, not sentiments. U.S. domestic manufacturing is ridiculously expensive, and tariffs may just push capital to Mexico or India instead of back to the U.S.
Is this to prolong the life of the U.S. debt bubble?
Now, U.S. debt relies on continuous overseas purchasing, but the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have basically peaked, and funds are not so willing to take the bait.
Imposing tariffs for foreign exchange income → converting to U.S. debt, to some extent, is 'drinking poison to quench thirst.'
Then I think the real pressure will fall on consumers and small to medium-sized enterprises.
Prices are definitely going to rise, especially for daily necessities/raw materials that rely on low-cost imports.
This is a hidden tax on the middle class and low-income groups.
In the short term, this is beneficial for the dollar/U.S. assets, but it is not a long-term balanced structure.
From a market perspective, this type of 'involution + exploitative prosperity' is not sustainable.
The tighter it gets, the more likely it is to collapse at some point in the future; it just depends on which crack the funds escape from first.
This is not trade justice; it's Trump’s version of economic warfare and poison tactics—killing a thousand enemies while harming oneself; the problem is you can't guess who he wants to take down next, that's just his nature.
