"Price is sticking to the lower Bollinger band, with a 12% deep discount below the holding cost. The contract is continuously decreasing in positions but shows a 15-minute level capital inflow. C is brewing a mean reversion trend towards POC 0.386."
Key interval structure and volume distribution
1. Value anchoring area: POC 0.386 (volume 624 million, Up/Down ≈ 56:44, slightly buyer-dominated).
2. High volume area:
• HVN1 0.296–0.306 (431 million) — short-term first resistance, price is likely to pause here.
• HVN2 0.315–0.326 (535 million) — second resistance, if broken with high volume, will quickly rush towards POC.
3. Low volume gap: 0.249–0.255 (near the lower Bollinger band), the current price is in this LVN, meeting the conditions for quick traversal.
4. 70% volume coverage area: 0.155–0.476; current price 0.253 is located in the lower 1/3, technically slightly oversold.
Momentum verification: In the past 2 weeks, the Up Volume in the 0.38–0.40 range accounted for 61%, indicating that there is still buy-side memory in this area; volume drops sharply near LVN 0.25, need to confirm the effectiveness of the breakout with increased volume.
Market Cycle
In the medium term, it is in a "final stage of decline + low volatility consolidation". The contract OI decreased by 17% over 7 days, funding rates close to 0, and the long-short ratio dropped from 1.49 to 1.42, with shorts gradually taking profits, consistent with the prelude to a bottoming formation.
Trading Strategy (Short-term, 1–3 days)
• Entry: 0.248–0.252 area pullback to LVN, and when a bullish candle appears in 15 min + volume > 1.2 times the average of the previous 20 candles, then enter (aggressive); for conservative traders, wait for a breakout and pullback at 0.262 without breaking.
• Stop Loss: 0.244 (below HVN 0.24), approximately -3.5%.
• First Target: 0.296 (HVN1), Second Target: 0.386 (POC).
• Profit and Loss Ratio: to the first target R≈2.9, to the second target R≈7.8.
• Invalid: Daily close below 0.24 or a sudden increase in contract OI > 5% is considered a bearish counterattack, stop loss immediately.
Risk Warning
If macro sentiment worsens or BTC breaks key support, C may retest the bottom at 0.20; short positions ≤ 5% of account equity, leverage ≤ 3 times.
LP Market Making Suggestion
It is recommended to place orders in the 0.245–0.300 range for market making:
• Lower bound 0.245–0.255 is LVN, easy to transact quickly;
• Upper bound 0.290–0.300 corresponds to HVN1, sufficient liquidity;
• Range width ≈ 20%, annualized fee income conservatively estimated at 12–15%, while capturing potential rebound price spreads.
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