After a 'bloodbath' of nearly 30% in 24 hours, the price has fallen below MA200 and the cost of positions; the extremely oversold RSI of 21.9 is pushing the chips towards the Bollinger lower band— the market is like a fully drawn bow, with the short-term value rebound ready to shoot.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchoring Zone (POC): 0.9187, the highest transaction density in the past day, with Up Volume accounting for 80%, the first target for a short-term rebound.
2. High Transaction Volume Zone (HVN):
• 0.7625-0.8059 accumulated 133 million tokens, constituting a strong support zone;
• 1.0403-1.0490 accumulated 153 million tokens, which is resistance for the rebound continuation.
3. Low Transaction Volume Gap (LVN): 1.6306-1.6393 only 36 million tokens, if the price breaks out with volume, it will quickly cross to the liquidity wall near 1.9.
4. 70% Transaction Volume Coverage Zone: 0.2937-1.4570, the current price of 1.0072 is at the bottom of this zone, technically in the 'oversold edge'.
【Momentum Verification】
• Up Volume above POC is 80% > 60%, buyers are dominant;
• Up Volume near 1.0 is 92%, strong willingness to bottom fish in the short term;
• Contract positions decreased by 7% in 24 hours, with the funding rate slightly negative, short covering momentum is accumulating.
【Auxiliary Indicators】
• MA200: 1.0878, deviation -7.4%, still bearish in the medium term, but the large deviation may trigger mean reversion;
• Bollinger lower band: 0.9882, price closely attached, if the hourly close recovers to 1.014 (lower band + 0.5×ATR), it is considered a preliminary stabilization;
• Spot market buy orders exceed 10,778, with 57,000 tokens accumulated below 1.0, providing a buffer.
【Market Cycle】
The daily level is in the 'panic tail end after a rapid decline', combined with the VPVR oversold zone and a decrease in positions, judged to be in the 'bear market late-stage consolidation' phase.
【Trading Strategy】
Aggressive: Buy directly in the range of 1.007-1.014, stop loss at 0.988 (recent HVN lower band - 0.5×ATR), target 1.040 (first HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to LVN 0.95-0.96 and a bullish candle with increased volume (Up Volume > 60%) before entering, stop loss at 0.935, target POC 0.9187, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.
Cautious: If a significant breakout occurs at 1.040 and holds, one can chase the buy to 1.118, stop loss at 1.020, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
Risk Warning: If the hourly closing price falls below 0.98, the short-term structure will be invalid, and one must stop loss and observe.
【LP Market Making Range】
It is recommended to place dual-sided liquidity in the range of 0.95-1.05:
• The lower edge 0.95 corresponds to large buy orders and the LVN vacuum area, supporting panic selling;
• The upper edge 1.05 is close to the Bollinger middle band and the first HVN, with concentrated selling pressure on rebounds;
• The range width ≈ 10%, and the annualized fee income can cover impermanent risks, with transaction volume verification at both ends.
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