Xu Xu Baby's Analysis on Bitcoin Technicals in the Evening:

From the 4-hour cycle structure, the current price is operating within an ascending triangle consolidation pattern, with the lower support located in the 114000-114500 range and the upper resistance around 117500. The core logic of this pattern is that as the lows gradually rise, the highs remain relatively fixed, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears within a compressed space. Once the upper resistance is broken, it often means a concentrated release of bullish energy, which is a key breakout signal to monitor in the short term.

On the indicator front, the MACD indicator's green bars continue to shorten, and there are signs of a golden cross between the DIFF line and the DEA line near the zero axis, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is waning and bulls are beginning to build strength; after previously entering the oversold area, the KDJ indicator's J line has started to turn upward, while the K and D lines are also showing signs of flattening, which is a typical oversold recovery signal. Coupled with the price stabilizing near the support level, short-term rebound momentum is gradually accumulating.

The funding dimension is worth noting; recent on-chain large transfer data shows that there are clear signs of accumulation by main wallets with balances between 1000-10000 BTC, especially when the price retraced to around 114000, with buy order volume increasing by about 30% compared to the previous period, indicating a high recognition level of the current range by the main funds. Considering the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin, the 12-18 months leading up to the halving is often a period of market preparation, with August as a crucial time window where the likelihood of market sentiment shifting from cautious to optimistic is increasing. The retracement appears more like a buildup of strength for the bulls for the subsequent market movement, rather than a trend reversal.

In terms of operations, short-term focus should be on the breakout situation at 117500. If this position can hold, the first target above can be seen at 119500 (the upper boundary of the previous oscillation range); the lower support must hold at 114000, and if it effectively breaks below, it may further test the mid-term support in the 112000-113000 range. From a long-term perspective, the current position is still in the cycle low range, and the main accumulation behavior during the retracement process may provide reference for mid to long-term positioning. #BTC #BTC走势分析 #美股代币化 #美国加征关税