旭旭宝宝说币

The daytime market has again fallen into a tedious tug-of-war, and it is indeed too early to assert a firm footing at this moment—after all, liquidity is generally low over the weekend, making both bulls and bears appear somewhat constrained. Clarification of the general direction may have to wait until Monday evening when the U.S. stock market opens, to see the attitude of external funds more clearly.

However, at present, Bitcoin at 113000 and Ethereum at 3500 are both considered areas with a certain degree of support. Of course, it would not be absolutely safe either; there is potential for downward movement, but it is worth noting that every time Bitcoin drops by 1000 points, it encounters a relatively strong support level, making it not so easy to break below.

In the short term, attention can be paid to the support of 112000 for Bitcoin, while for Ethereum, focus on the 3315 level. Interestingly, the ETH/BTC ratio has a chance to test the 0.03 threshold, and whether this position breaks or not may also provide some signals regarding the relative strength of the two assets. #BTC #ETH

The fluctuations of Bitcoin around $112,000 hide a key signal. This position is precisely the pullback point after breaking through the previous high, just like a stable rock you step on while climbing — as long as it doesn’t break down, the foundation for the entire market’s rise remains solid.

Don’t underestimate this pullback; the retracement in a bull market is never the end. It’s more like a cooling-off period for those who chased highs and also provides an entry window for those who missed out. If $112,000 can hold steadily, it means the previous breakout is valid, and the selling pressure has been largely digested; it’s very likely that the momentum will carry it up again.

At this point, positioning in the spot market requires a bit of patience. There’s no need to rush in all at once; focus on this support level: if the price stabilizes nearby and even shows signs of a slight rebound, entering in batches is more prudent. After all, a real bull market does not lack opportunities; what is lacking is the composure to maintain one’s ground amid fluctuations.

Remember, the significance of key levels lies not in precise predictions but in helping you judge the big direction. If it holds, go with the trend; if it doesn’t, it’s not too late to adjust your strategy. In the current situation, rather than guessing the top or bottom, it’s better to focus on this "touchstone" — it will tell you how to press the accelerator for the next wave of the market.

Xu Xu Baby says cryptocurrency market outlook for August 2:

The significant downward revision of non-farm payroll data has become an important turning point for the recent market. This signal has directly driven the rebound of the US stock market, and expectations for liquidity easing in the market have clearly intensified, providing marginal positive support for the cryptocurrency market.

In terms of Bitcoin, after probing the bottom yesterday, it successfully rebounded and has filled the CME gap around 1130, showing signs of stabilizing in the short term.

Operational suggestions may refer to:

- Bitcoin: Consider establishing long positions in the 1122-1135 range, targeting 1155-1165. If it can strongly break through 1165, it can further look towards around 1180.
- Ethereum: Consider entering long positions in the 3520-3565 range, targeting upwards to 3650-3690, and a breakthrough may aim for 3720.

#BTC走势分析 #ETH

The dramatic fluctuations in the US stock market recently resonate sharply with the Federal Reserve's policy game: strong economic data earlier pushed US stocks to repeatedly hit new highs; however, in July, non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, far below the expected 104,000, marking a new nine-month low. Coupled with the downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, signals of a cooling labor market triggered a severe market adjustment, with the Nasdaq falling over 2% in a single day and the Dow Jones also plummeting by 542 points.

Behind this volatility lies a deep struggle over monetary policy. Despite the uproar over comments about firing Powell, the legal framework has long drawn a red line: according to the Federal Reserve Act, the President must meet statutory reasons such as "inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance" to remove a Federal Reserve governor, and requires a two-thirds majority support from both houses of Congress; mere policy disagreements do not constitute grounds for dismissal. More crucially, Powell's term as chairman does not end until May 2026, and his term as a governor extends to 2028. This institutional design creates a "policy inertia" that alleviates market concerns over short-term political interference.

In the Bitcoin market, the five consecutive daily declines have validated the effectiveness of the bearish trend. Currently, attention should be paid to two key points: first, the previous support level near $112,000, and second, the potential disturbances brought by the rising expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September—following the release of non-farm data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from 40% to 73%. The interplay of this macro variable with technical aspects necessitates a more layered operational strategy: medium to long-term short positions can gradually exit during this pullback, while short-term strategies can still follow the logic of short-selling on rebounds, with a focus on the pressure response in the $114,000-$115,000 range.

Interestingly, beneath the surface of synchronized pullbacks in the US stock market and Bitcoin, the divergence between the two is intensifying. Citibank's latest report predicts that Bitcoin may reach $135,000 by the end of the year, and could rise to $199,000 in an optimistic scenario. This expectation gap stems from the independent cyclicality of crypto assets and reflects the market's hedging demand against uncertainties in the traditional financial system. As policy games enter deeper waters, Bitcoin's dual attributes as "digital gold" and "risk asset" will manifest more complex volatility characteristics within the bearish landscape.#美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #美联储利率决议

8.2 Bitcoin Strategy Analysis:

Yesterday's Bitcoin trend was quite noteworthy, oscillating down from the 118900 level, with a minimum touch around 112700, resulting in an approximate fluctuation of 6200 points within a single day, indicating a high level of market activity.

From the hourly chart perspective, the current moving average system shows a downward inclination, with short-term bearish forces still dominating, and the adjustment trend has not changed. Considering that weekend markets typically exhibit oscillatory characteristics, it is advisable to prioritize a short strategy.

It is recommended to set up short positions in the range of 114100-114700, with a short-term target around 111900. If this position is effectively breached, it may further decline towards the 108900 area. #美国加征关税 #美国初请失业金人数

Xuxu Baby said that the market this Friday is mainly dominated by bears, showing a fluctuating downward trend. Bitcoin's price has been continuously retreating since the high of around 118,850 early yesterday morning. Although there was a slight rebound during this time, the strength was weak and failed to reverse the downward trend. It has now fallen to around 114,200, approaching a key short-term support level.

In recent days, I have been reminding everyone to mainly focus on short positions. Yesterday, I set up short positions for Bitcoin three times, accumulating a profit of 7,000 points, of which the short position taken in the early morning alone achieved over 4,000 points in profit; for Ethereum, two short positions also generated nearly 250 points in profit. Over the past two days, I have repeatedly emphasized that under the current trend, as long as one chooses to short, even if the entry point is slightly inferior, it is only a matter of how much profit can be made.

From the 4-hour candlestick chart, the bearish trend is evident. Bitcoin's price has continuously closed lower from the high of around 118,910, and although there have been sporadic upward candles, it has consistently failed to break through the mid-line pressure, and the rebound amplitude is getting smaller, indicating insufficient strength for a bull attack. Currently, the price continues to run along the lower track, with the Bollinger Bands opening downward, and the downward channel has already opened; in the MACD indicator, the DIF remains below the DEA, with the green bars continuously expanding, showing no signs of weakening bearish momentum; the short-term RSI6 has dropped into the oversold zone but has failed to drive the medium-term indicators to change direction, indicating weak rebound momentum.

Overall, the pattern dominated by bears has not changed. If the lower track support is lost, it may open up deeper downward space. In terms of operation, one can take the opportunity to short during rebounds while closely monitoring the situation of the lower track support.

Operational suggestions:

- Bitcoin can be shorted around 114,500—115,500, with a target towards 113,000; if it breaks, one can continue to follow up.
- Ethereum can be shorted around 3,580, with a target towards 3,450. #BTC走势分析 #ETH #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调

The tense rhythm of the workweek has finally come to an end, and the comfort of the weekend has quietly arrived. All traders may take a moment to rest. Have a pleasant weekend.

The evening market experienced a wide range of fluctuations: prices first rebounded to 3675 near 3605 due to bullish strength, then fell back to 3562, after which it rebounded again to around 3655, ultimately closing around 3580. Overall, a downward fluctuation trend is observed, with moving averages gradually moving downward, while another key range of 114000-116000 also maintains a wide fluctuation pattern.

Currently, the candlestick shows a cross candle with a long lower shadow, with bearish strength continuing to increase pressure. On the four-hour level, after a decrease in bearish volume, a bullish candlestick rebound appeared, but the pressure at 116000 above still needs to be closely monitored, while the short-term support below is at 114000; on the hourly level, bullish strength is increasing, with pressure above at 116300 and support below at 114300.

Midnight trading strategy:

1. If the market rebounds to the 115800-116300 range, pay attention to the support area below at 114300-114800.
2. If the price rebounds to around 3638-3668, consider setting up a short position, targeting the 3588-3558 area.

Overall, the market is still in a phase of range-bound downward fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a high short and low long strategy, keeping a close eye on the two key support levels of 114000 and 3560. Be sure to manage risk well, and realize profits promptly within the range. #BTC走势分析 #ETH

Xu Xu Baby says that on August 2, Ethereum (Second Cake) market analysis in the early morning:

Observing the 4-hour K-line trend, the downward trend of Ethereum is becoming increasingly clear. The price continues to test support levels, and the previous consolidation range has been effectively broken, with bears beginning to take control of the market rhythm. This means that the phase of sideways consolidation has officially come to an end, and the market has clearly shifted into a downward channel.

For evening operations, it is recommended to follow the principle of 'trading with the trend' and primarily focus on establishing short positions at high levels.
Specific reference: short positions can be entered in the range of 3680-3720, with a short-term target looking towards the 3600-3500 area.

A new cycle in the cryptocurrency market has already begun! A significant turning point is quietly arriving - the U.S. SEC has officially given the green light for the physical redemption of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, and has launched "Project Crypto" as a top-level plan. This move clearly signals a shift in regulatory logic: from a past of defensive containment to building a constructive industry framework.

At the same time, Coinbase has also made a bold move, announcing the upcoming launch of on-chain stock and other innovative businesses, aiming for the compliance-oriented goal of an "all-in-one exchange." This series of developments is clearly outlining a new path for crypto assets: the industry is accelerating into a new phase of systematization and institutionalization, and the once-clear boundary between traditional finance and the on-chain world is gradually dissolving. #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调

The long-awaited breakthrough for BTC has finally happened, but the direction chosen is downward, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

I remain optimistic about BTC in the long term, but I believe that after reaching a new high, it needs to undergo a reasonable correction to more steadily challenge new highs again, allowing the bull trend to take a firmer ground.

After breaking at the daily level, the key support is still the 113,700 I mentioned earlier, and now we need to observe the strength of support at this level.

The correction after the new high on the daily level can refer to the three-wave pattern of a retracement, which is quite enlightening in a long-term upward trend.

If we are to correlate with history, the movement after the new high in May can serve as a reference; the current phase is in the first wave of decline after the new high.

According to this rhythm, there will be a rally that does not reach a new high, forming the second wave, followed by a correction that breaks below a low point, constituting the third wave.

After the third wave ends, we need to carefully analyze it in conjunction with the macro environment and technical aspects to distinguish whether the third wave retracement ends, leading to a new rise, or whether it evolves from the third wave retracement into a deep decline of five waves.

However, in a non-bear market phase, the probability of a deep five-wave correction is not high, and currently, the broader environment shows no signs of a bear market, so a specific judgment based on the situation is needed at that time.

If it follows a third wave retracement, the entire process is expected to conclude in about four to five weeks, with a focus on changes in the market from mid to late August to early September.

Many people might be concerned about whether it will drop below 100,000. From the current perspective, unless a significant negative news occurs, it would be quite difficult.

The significant negatives mentioned here include: no interest rate cuts in 2025, a sharp deterioration in Sino-US trade relations, an escalation of geopolitical wars, and the US economy facing recession risks, among others.

Lastly, I want to emphasize that during an uptrend, don't blindly follow the crowd, and during a downtrend, don't panic and make impulsive decisions. The mindset of thinking that a rise means it's about to take off, and a drop means it's a waterfall, is really not advisable.#美国加征关税 #BTC走势分析

Xu Xu Baby discusses the market analysis and strategy reference for cryptocurrency on the evening of 8.1

Observing from the 4-hour cycle, the current price is reported at 115442, down 2.44% compared to the previous cycle. The K-line shows a continuous bearish arrangement, with significant characteristics of a downward trend. From a technical perspective, the moving average system has formed a death cross structure, and all EMA indicators remain in a downward trend, indicating that short, medium, and long-term funds are under pressure simultaneously, with market selling pressure dominating the sentiment.

Today, the price has broken below the recent oscillation range support, reaching a low of 114055, accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, indicating that the bearish selling strength is intensifying, and the weak consolidation pattern is likely to continue in the short term. The key support area below focuses on the psychological level of 114000; if this level is lost, it may trigger further downside potential. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there are signs of a bottoming near the support level, such as a decrease in volume stabilizing with a rebound bullish candlestick, which may suggest that short-term adjustments are in place.

Operation strategy reference:

- You can attempt to place a short position near 115800 for Bitcoin, with the target looking at the 113500-114000 range, and place the stop loss above 116500;
- Near 3660 for ETH, consider a light short position, targeting the 3550-3580 area, with the stop loss set above 3700.

(Note: Cryptocurrency market volatility is severe; strategies should be adjusted based on real-time market conditions, and strict risk control is necessary.)

Midday Market Update

Bitcoin surged to 116000 in the morning session before facing pressure and retreating, hitting a low around 114000, then fluctuating back to the 115000 area for consolidation; Ethereum followed a similar trajectory, declining from 3722 to a low of 3582, then rebounding to around 3625 for oscillation.

Technical Analysis

- Bitcoin's daily candlestick shows an increasing bearish volume pattern, with an opening price of 115700 in the morning;
- The four-hour timeframe shows bearish energy has peaked, with a short-term support level at 114000;
- The hourly chart indicates a contraction in bearish volume, closing with a bullish candlestick, with resistance at 116000 above and support at 113800 below, indicating a short-term downtrend.

Evening Trading Strategy

- Bitcoin: It is recommended to set long positions in the range of 114100-114600, targeting 116000-116500, with a stop loss at 113500;
- Ethereum: You can attempt to go long in the 3560-3580 range, targeting 3650-3680, with a stop loss at 3500.

The above is a personal opinion for reference only, and actual operations should be adjusted based on real-time market conditions.

The rebound in the early session is merely a temporary pullback, and the overall downward trend has not changed.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have precisely reached our preset initial target areas:

- For Bitcoin, our short position set around 11600 reached a low of 11400, with a single downward movement exceeding 2000 points, and the market rhythm completely aligns with expectations.
- For Ethereum, the short position entered near 3722 has currently reached a low of 3583, with an overall downward space exceeding 140 points, and the market evolution closely matches our predictions.

Current market sentiment remains weak, and the rebound seems more like an opportunity for bears to enter better positions. Operationally, we still need to follow the trend, as the downward pattern has not shown signs of reversal. #BTC走势分析 #ETH走势分析

The morning market continued the bearish downward trend from the previous night, with Bitcoin briefly dipping to around 114200, while Ethereum touched the 3613 range, before both experiencing a rebound.

From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick shows an increase in bearish momentum, while also forming a lower shadow bullish candlestick, indicating some support below; the four-hour chart also exhibits increased bearish volume along with a lower shadow bullish candlestick, intensifying the short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears; the hourly chart displays characteristics of bearish volume contraction, with prices showing a rebound upwards, but still facing pressure from above in the short term, likely entering a phase of oscillation and consolidation.

In terms of operations, Bitcoin could focus on buying opportunities in the 115000-115500 range, with a target initially aimed at 116500-117500; Ethereum could pay attention to buying opportunities in the 3660-3690 range, targeting around 3750-3780.

The above is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only.

Black Friday remains strong, black swans are never just talk. As the price comparison approached Friday midnight, it began to plunge, with a drop of over four thousand points; yesterday at noon, we indicated a continuation of the bullish trend, and the price reached around 118852 as expected, then again pulled back. Throughout the day, the market maintained a volatile pattern, unable to break out into a strong one-sided trend. We focused on buying Bitcoin around 117892, waiting to exit when it reached 118706. The initial trade captured a space of 814 points, and then based on the market conditions and smaller time frame patterns, we directly reversed to short once, exiting when it dropped to 117461. The short trade captured a space of 1245 points. This sequence of first going long and then short, a roller coaster trading method, resulted in a total gain of 2059 points. In the early morning, we did not participate much in trading. There are many opportunities daily, as long as one grasps the market rhythm and combines it with smaller time frame patterns, both long and short have opportunities. This is the charm of practical market guidance.
Bitcoin finished the month strong yesterday, with the white market showing inaction, and the evening market all moved out, causing the price to plunge. The monthly upper shadow extended. Although there was a certain drop, this round of decline only deepened the pullback intensity, and the monthly line still presented four consecutive bullish candles, indicating that the structure has not changed. The upward trend line is performing well, and the bulls still dominate; Ethereum's monthly line closed even stronger. For Ethereum yesterday, it just barely reached a pullback intensity. Although there was also an upper shadow, the amplitude was not large, and the bullish momentum was more prominent. Last month, Ethereum achieved an astonishing rise of 1500 points, with the bulls' recovery being quite exaggerated and not truly giving a pullback before. The trend still shows that the bulls are in control. In the future, we will continue to follow the trend and maintain a bullish outlook, waiting for the price to stabilize and continuing to look for bulls to recover upwards.
Bitcoin can be bought at 115500-115000, targeting around 117800; Ethereum can be bought at 3700-3670, targeting around 3800. #BTC走势分析 #ETH走势分析

Midday Analysis: SOL is currently in a high-level pullback trend, with an overall slow pace, and the highs are showing a continuous downward trend. During the morning session, the price has already fallen below the 170 level, indicating that the bears are temporarily gaining some dominance.

However, it is worth noting that the current price of SOL is slowly approaching the medium-term accumulation area. The 165-158 range is the initiation area of the previous main uptrend, which has certain holding value from a long-term perspective.

In terms of specific operations, for the short term, one might consider attempting a light leveraged position in the 165-168 range for a rebound, while 158 can be used as the limit for incremental positions. Spot investors are advised to gradually start positioning from now on.

If the intraday trend can rebound and stabilize above 170, there is a chance to form a stage bottom pattern; conversely, if it continues to weaken and breaks below 158, one needs to be cautious that the overall cycle may be pushed further back.

Morning Analysis on August 1

Bitcoin started its downward trend from the 119200 line yesterday afternoon, oscillating lower and showing signs of breaking through the current range. There was a brief rebound midway, but it was weak like a shooting star, failing to reverse the downward inertia.

In my opinion, since the main force has released clear downward momentum in this wave, it is highly likely that it will not stop easily in the short term. There is still potential for further downward movement, and friends holding long positions should be wary of wishful thinking, ensuring to set stop-loss protections to avoid further risk amplification.

This morning, Bitcoin continued its downward trend. Observing the market, the K-line patterns, technical indicators, and overall market sentiment all clearly indicate a bearish dominant pattern. The price briefly touched a low of 114300 during the session; although there has been a slight rebound, the momentum is clearly insufficient, and no effective reversal signals have appeared yet. 📉 If the price breaks below the 114300 support again, it cannot be ruled out that it will continue to seek lower support areas, and bears still have room to operate.

Personal suggestion:
Bitcoin: Consider opening short positions in the range of 115600-116500, with initial targets at 114000-112000; if it breaks below, further look towards around 110000.
Ethereum: Consider short positions in the range of 3710-3750, with lower targets focusing on 3600-3500; if it effectively breaks below, it can extend to around 3350.

Friday morning, Xu Xu Baby's operational thought analysis

Hello, August has opened anew. May the new month bring unexpected good fortune and just the right surprises.

The morning's big pie continues the previous breakthrough rhythm. From the market performance, the current K-line structure, technical indicators, and market sentiment are all leaning towards bearish dominance, with prices at one point dipping to the 114300 level. Although there has been a slight rebound, there has yet to be a clear reversal signal, and the strength of the rebound appears weak. If prices break below the 114300 support again, it is highly likely to further test lower levels.

Operational suggestions:
BTC can lay out short positions in the 115600-116500 range, paying close attention to the validity of the second break of 114300 below. If this level is confirmed to be lost, subsequent targets can gradually look towards 113800, 112000, or even around 110600. #BTC走势分析