Fundamental Analysis
Trump has released news: If the EU fails to fulfill its obligations, a 35% tariff will be imposed on it. In addition, there are plans to announce tariff policies for drugs and chips next week, with initial tariffs for the pharmaceutical industry being relatively low but ultimately rising to 250%. This series of measures has led to increasing tensions in EU-US relations, ongoing escalation of global trade frictions, and a larger volatility in risk assets. The euro, US stocks, and crypto assets have all been suppressed, with funds flocking to safe-haven assets, resulting in a rapid and significant increase in gold prices in a short time.
According to CME's 'Fed Watch', the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has reached 92.4%.
The overall Bitcoin network has seen its computing power rise to 1.08ZH/s for the first time, setting a new historical high. This phenomenon indicates an improvement in the security of the Bitcoin network, with miners having a positive outlook on the market. Its fundamentals remain robust, which is an important underlying signal for a bullish outlook in the medium to long term. However, in the short term, its impact is limited and may even lean towards being bearish. Currently, the price of the coin has not risen along with the computing power, showing a 'divergence state', and it still faces downward pressure risks in the short term. Moreover, the increase in computing power will lead to a rise in mining difficulty, and less efficient miners may face selling pressure. If this divergence structure persists for too long, combined with macro bearish factors such as US stock market corrections and ETD capital outflows, it could easily trigger a market sell-off.
Technical Analysis
BTC: In yesterday's research report, it was clearly pointed out to focus on the pressure at the 115K level to look for short opportunities, while paying close attention to the support at the 112.5 level below. During the US market session yesterday, BTC began to fall, reaching a low of 112.6, which completely aligned with expectations. After reaching a new high in mid-July, BTC formed a top box fluctuation structure, which has lasted nearly 20 days. Last Friday, BTC broke below the bottom of the box at the 116K level, initiating a downward trend. After two days of volume contraction rebound, the technical gap has been filled. Additionally, the risk aversion sentiment triggered by tariff escalations has begun to show a second wave of downward trend on the daily chart. Yesterday, BTC saw a moderate volume drop, and today it continues this downward trend; the short-term downward target may likely reach the 110K threshold. From the 4-hour chart, BTC rebounded multiple times to the 115K level before falling back, with a large bearish candle appearing during the US market session, indicating that short-term bullish main force is escaping. The overnight rebound did not show significant volume, and now a larger bearish candle has appeared. In terms of daily operations, focus on the pressure at the 114-115K level above as a short opportunity; below, pay attention to the support at the 112.5-111.5K level.
ETH: On the daily chart, ETH has faced strong resistance above 3700 points in the past half month. The K-line has frequently shown high-position doji stars and consecutive long upper shadows at this position, indicating a gradual weakening of bullish strength. Furthermore, despite increased trading volume, the coin price has not shown an upward trend, which is a typical phenomenon of volume-price divergence. Last Friday, ETH broke below the 3700 point level, reaching the support at 3400 points. Although ETH saw a significant rebound due to favorable factors in the previous two days, the sustainability of the rebound is limited, and after failing to break through 3700 points, it has once again formed two consecutive bearish candles. From the 4-hour chart, ETH is currently in a small downward trend, with clear support around 3560 points. If it breaks below this level again during the day, the next support could be at 3450 points. In terms of daily operations, focus on the pressure at the 3600-3640 level above to look for short opportunities; meanwhile, pay attention to the support at the 3500-3470 level below.
Altcoin Situation
Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has significantly increased, it has not yet been actually implemented; ETH ETF has entered the technical preparation stage, but there have not been substantial buy-ins; mainstream altcoin topics, such as AI, RWA, L2, etc., have not yet formed a concentrated breakthrough in enthusiasm and funding, mostly showing sporadic rotations; BTC/ETH are currently in a correction phase after a main upward wave; leading projects have shown early price increases, with profit-taking occurring before favorable news lands; some altcoins have experienced deep corrections after short-term surges, indicating instability in market hot money. The overall market is still in a structural adjustment period and has not entered a 'full bull market main upward wave'; altcoin spot trading generally lacks profit effects, while risks have increased. Therefore, it is recommended to remain in cash and wait for opportunities after market adjustments. Always remember: altcoins are for trading, not for value investing. When engaging in swing trading, profit-taking should be timely, and do not get too attached. Once the enthusiasm of the theme fades, chip prices will quickly drop.
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The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is advised when entering. The above content is merely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, only for sharing.