I. Fundamental Analysis
Fed Policy Direction
Current market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have risen to 94.4%, and expectations for the start of the easing cycle have deeply penetrated the market. Recently, Fed official Daly stated that the interest rate cut window is gradually approaching, and the number of cuts this year is likely to exceed two — this contrasts with the current dot plot showing only one expected cut; if the actual number of cuts exceeds expectations, it will mean monetary policy easing is greater than previously anticipated.
From the market impact perspective, the Fed's interest rate cuts will directly push down US Treasury yields and weaken the US dollar index, which is expected to improve the global liquidity environment, and the cryptocurrency market may gain dual drives of 'valuation repair' and 'sentiment boost'. However, potential risks must be heeded: if inflation data rebounds or the labor market performs stronger than expected during this period, it could lead to a delay in interest rate cut plans, at which point the previous market gains may face rapid reversal pressure.
Easing of US-EU trade relations
The EU recently announced a six-month suspension of trade countermeasures against the US, marking a temporary easing of trade tensions between Europe and the US. The increased stability of the global macro environment will improve market risk appetite, helping to guide funds towards high-yield assets and providing indirect support for the cryptocurrency market.
II. Technical Analysis
BTC Trend Analysis
Since reaching a phase high in mid-July, BTC has shown a pattern of top box oscillation combined with a breakdown and decline, currently in a consolidation and repair phase after the breakdown, aiming to fill the gap created by last week's rapid decline.
In terms of volume, during last week's correction, trading volume moderately increased, indicating that some funds chose to exit or wait and see; although there was a contraction rebound in the past two days, the strength of the rebound was weak, and a V-shaped reversal has not yet formed.
Support and resistance levels: The key short-term support level is near 110,000 USD, which is both the top area of the previous platform support and where the 90-day moving average is located; if this support is broken, the next target may look towards the previous platform support bottom of 105,000 USD.
The 4-hour level shows that during yesterday's US trading session, there were multiple spikes and falls, closing with a long upper shadow, indicating insufficient upward momentum and a low willingness for previously exited capital to return; currently, a relatively large bearish candlestick has appeared, likely reversing yesterday's gains.
Intraday trading suggestions: Pay attention to the resistance level in the range of 115,000 - 116,000 USD above, and seize short-selling opportunities; below, watch for the support range of 113,500 - 112,500 USD.
ETH Trend Analysis
Since the peak at the end of July, ETH has formed support around 3,700 USD, and after breaking down last week, it has experienced a volume drop, retracing to around the 30-day moving average at 3,400 USD. In the past two days, driven by the positive news of rising expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, the coin price has once again attacked 3,700 USD, but it is currently showing a pattern of rising and falling, indicating that the current market is in a stalemate of 'pressure above and support below', with short-term direction still unclear.
In terms of volume characteristics, yesterday saw a significant increase and closed with a large bullish candlestick, indicating substantial capital participation in the market; however, as the 'first beneficiary' under the expectation of interest rate cuts, BTC is currently performing flat, reflecting limited overall market participation, which also becomes an important background for ETH's retreat after breaking through 3,700 USD.
Subsequent trend judgment: If it can stabilize at 3,600 USD and break through 3,700 USD again, it is expected to challenge the previous high of 3,941 USD; if it falls below 3,600 USD again, it may test the support near 3,400 USD.
The 4-hour level shows that the current relatively large bearish candlestick may disrupt the upward structure of this rebound.
Intraday trading suggestions: Pay attention to the resistance zone of 3,680 - 3,720 USD above, and the support zone of 3,620 - 3,580 USD below; if it breaks below 3,580 USD, it may further look to 3,520 USD.
III. Altcoin Market Outlook
If ETH can stabilize above 3,700 USD, it may initiate a new round of upward trend, with a focus on opportunities related to the Ethereum ecosystem (including L2, AI, RWA, etc.). From the linkage logic, an increase in ETH main chain prices will drive up staking value and expand TVL, further boosting the popularity of the L2 sector; at the same time, stable funds may accelerate inflow into RWA and DeFi protocols, while speculative funds are expected to cluster in hot fields such as AI, DePIN, and GameFi, with related sectors likely to welcome a Beta rotation market. A detailed analysis of specific coins will be organized separately.
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Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is needed when entering the market. The views in this article are personal analysis and do not constitute investment advice, for reference only.
