Fundamentals:
Federal Reserve official Daly stated that the job market is gradually cooling, and the impact of tariffs is only short-term, with a window for interest rate cuts about to open. Another official, Collins, pointed out that there is significant uncertainty in the long-term investment field, and a comprehensive analysis of various data is needed to measure the level of uncertainty.
According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reached 93.6%.
Trump stated that tariffs may be imposed on certain countries, with tariffs in the chip sector potentially reaching about 100%. However, companies building factories in the U.S. may be exempt.
Ethereum's daily trading volume reached 1.87 million transactions, approaching the historical peak of 1.96 million recorded in January 2024. This data indicates a significant increase in on-chain activity, with enthusiasm from users and developers, but there is also a need to be wary of the risk of 'volume-price divergence' and closely monitor potential signals of a bear trap.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Currently in an adjustment phase after breaking out of a high-level range, the main short-term resistance level is at 116K, which is also the bottom of the previous high-level consolidation. Strong support is at 110K, the starting point of the price increase at the beginning of July. After the breakout last week, the market rebounded driven by positive macro factors, but in the last three days, the daily level has repeatedly tested the 115.5 position and faced resistance, indicating significant pressure at the 116K level. This low-volume rebound lacks momentum. During the rebound process, trading volume significantly shrank, reflecting a lack of confidence among bulls. If there is no influx of funds or major positive news in the short term, the short-term market is still inclined towards oscillation and decline. The 4-hour chart shows that after a strong rise during the U.S. session touching 115.5, it began to pull back, currently forming a three-day consecutive decline, with minor support at the 114K level and a slight rebound currently occurring. For intraday trading, focus on the resistance level in the range of 114.8-115.8 for short opportunities; below, pay attention to the support in the range of 113.5-112.5.
ETH: From a daily perspective, Ethereum is currently in the second phase of a range-bound movement between 3600-3700. It is expected that this range-bound trend will not last long, and a breakout may occur on Friday. The daily chart shows a small head-and-shoulders pattern with a high of 3941 and a second high of 3720, and the range is gradually narrowing. In recent days, while the price has been oscillating, trading volume has moderately increased, but an overall price increase has not achieved a breakthrough, indicating a significant divergence between volume and price, suggesting that funds are temporarily in a wait-and-see state. If the volume decreases and breaks below the support level of 3560, a rapid pullback may occur. Currently, Ethereum is one of the main drivers of this rebound, but it lacks sustained support from major funds and needs time for consolidation. Compared to BTC, if Bitcoin weakens, it is unlikely that Ethereum will hold the support level of 3560. The 4-hour chart shows that it is currently near the double-top resistance at around 3700, and there has been a slight pullback. If it breaks below 3650, we can look further towards 3560. For intraday trading, focus on the resistance level in the range of 3680-3720 for short opportunities; pay attention to the support in the range of 3610-3570.
Altcoins: Currently, trading opportunities in altcoins have not yet emerged, and it is recommended to maintain a vacant stance and observe. During this period of holding a vacant position, I will share some trading experiences with altcoins daily. After last year's altcoin bull market, the market is no longer in a 'general rise' pattern, but is showing a highly differentiated trend, where only projects with clear themes and strong narratives have trading opportunities and profit potential. The main speculative themes in the current market include AI concepts, RWA, L2, and MEME short-term sentiment waves. It is important to remember that altcoin trading is a short-term operation, not value investing. When engaging in wave trading, one should take profits and exit promptly, avoiding a lingering battle. The operation should strongly follow trends and maintain a short-term mindset; if one does not know how to escape at the peak and take profits, even if successful, it can only be considered half accomplished. Regarding contracts: We are currently launching a 'rebate + free guidance' activity, where I will personally teach position management and take-profit and stop-loss skills, with rebates of up to 40%. This activity is long-term effective, and the first batch is limited to the first 50 participants. Everyone is welcome to actively participate and receive exclusive guidance.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; caution is advised when entering. The above views are purely personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice, only for reference sharing.