The crypto market is suddenly hit by a 'black swan'! Trump announces a 25% punitive tariff on India, targeting its 'reselling of Russian oil for profit'. As the news breaks, panic in the global financial market escalates. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is stuck at the critical level of 3680 USD, with technical breakdown signals emerging; a life-and-death game between bulls and bears has already begun.
I. Tariff storm strikes, ETH technical indicators flash red
On August 5, ETH showed signs of struggle: opening at 3678.81 USD, peaking at 3735 USD before quickly retreating, closing at 3681.54 USD by 10:00, only a slight increase of 0.07%. Beneath the calm surface, technical indicators have already issued warnings:
BOLL band: Upper band 3768.59 USD forms strong pressure, lower band 3515.83 USD hides selling risks; if broken, it may trigger a chain reaction;
Fibonacci retracement: 20% key level (3678 USD) coincides with the current price, if lost, may head straight for 38.2% retracement level (3627 USD);
Alligator's mouth contraction: Long-short game reaches a critical point, direction choice is imminent.
II. Historical warning: Tariffs in 2025 once caused ETH to plummet 27% in a single day
Trump's 'tariff club' has long proven its lethality: In February 2025, after tariffs were imposed on Canada and Mexico, ETH plummeted 27% in a single day to 2135 USD, marking the largest drop since May 2021. This time targeting India, market panic is expected to be even greater.
In the last 24 hours, over 700,000 people globally have been liquidated, amounting to 2.04 billion USD, with long positions accounting for 87%;
Retail panic selling and institutional bottom fishing create a confrontation, with volatility self-reinforcing;
If India retaliates or the trade war escalates, ETH may face a 10%-20% correction.
III. 3680 USD as the lifeline: the last defense line for the bulls
Currently, ETH is stuck around 3680 USD, which is precisely the intersection of pressure and support:
Upper pressure: BOLL upper band 3768 USD and 0% Fibonacci level 3735 USD form dual resistance, rebound lacks strength;
Lower support: 20% retracement level 3678 USD is the first lifeline, if broken, need to see if 3627 USD (38.2% retracement level) can hold — this is also the last 'fortress' for the bulls.
IV. Key to breaking the deadlock: Two major signals determine direction
Policy aspect: Before the tariff takes effect on August 7, if the US and India reach an agreement, panic sentiment may ease or push ETH to rebound;
Capital aspect: BlackRock Bitcoin Trust saw over 4 billion USD net inflow in a single week; if funds shift to ETH, it may reverse the downward trend.
Personal view
ETH current price is 3680 USD, standing at the 'critical juncture': strong pressure above at 3768 USD, and the lifeline below at 3678 USD. If it breaks below 3678 USD, it is very likely to test 3627 USD support and even replay the collapse scenario from February; in the short term, if policies are delayed or institutional funds enter the market, it may temporarily stabilize the situation, but if 3627 USD is lost, the risk of chain liquidations will sharply increase.
Trump's tariff 'trigger' has been ignited; the game around ETH at 3680 USD may determine the next phase of the crypto market. At this moment, is it time to observe or lay out a plan? Pay attention to subsequent signals to find the right direction amidst the storm.
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