On August 5, the cryptocurrency market is on high alert — former U.S. President Trump will guest on CNBC's flagship program (Squawk Box) at 8:00 PM Beijing time. This interview covering the economy, Federal Reserve policy, and tariffs is seen by the industry as a potential 'key variable' that could trigger market volatility. Whether it's Bitcoin or mainstream currencies, they may experience drastic fluctuations under the impact of his remarks, and investors have entered a 'prepared mode'.
1. Trump's 'policy legacy': once caused the crypto market to soar by 40%, and also led to a market value evaporation of over 40%
Looking back at his tenure, the policy's impact on cryptocurrency can be described as a 'double-edged sword':
Loose period (2017 tax cuts): Disposable income for businesses and individuals surged, net inflow of funds into the crypto market soared by 37% year-on-year, Bitcoin skyrocketed from the thousands to $20,000, and blockchain startups emerged in droves — the loose policy directly fed the crypto market.
Friction period (2018-2019 trade war): The escalation of tariff friction between China and the U.S. led to a cooling global economic outlook, market panic spread, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporated by 40% within three months, with funds fleeing high-risk assets towards gold and the U.S. dollar — trade protectionism became the 'fever reducer' for the crypto market.
If this interview brings up tax cuts or deregulation again, it may awaken the market's memory of 'funding easing'; if trade friction is emphasized, cryptocurrencies may once again become the 'vanguard of sell-offs'. 2. The 'pressure agent' of Federal Reserve policy: One of his words has made interest rate cut expectations soar. Trump's 'public criticism' of the Federal Reserve has always been a 'sentiment trigger' for the market:
Past data shows that whenever he criticizes the Federal Reserve for 'raising interest rates too quickly', the expectation of interest rate cuts in the CME FedWatch Tool jumps — and cryptocurrencies are extremely sensitive to 'liquidity easing': during the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing in 2020, Bitcoin surged from $7,000 to $30,000, thanks to the easing expectations.
If he pressures 'the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates' again tonight, the market may bet on 'liquidity easing', and cryptocurrencies may rise due to the influx of funds; conversely, if his remarks imply 'accepting high interest rates', tightening expectations will rise, and the crypto market may face outflow pressure. 3. The 'chain reaction' of tariff policies: Mining companies have seen their costs rise by 30% as a result, and cryptocurrency prices have suffered collateral damage from Trump's tariff policies directly impacting the crypto industry:
Previously, the U.S. imposed tariffs on imported crypto mining machines, causing some mining companies' operating costs to surge by 20%-30%, forcing layoffs, relocations, and even shutdowns — the industry's foundation has been damaged, and prices naturally face pressure.
If a signal of 'new tariffs' is released this time, it will not only hit the crypto hardware supply chain but also raise concerns over global economic growth, leading to a decline in investors' risk appetite, with high-risk assets like Bitcoin being the first to be sold off. In the face of volatility, what should investors do?
Don't bet on the direction, first control your position: reduce leveraged contracts, keep spot positions within 50%, and maintain enough cash to cope with sudden fluctuations.
Keep an eye on two signals:
If mentioning 'tax cuts, deregulation', pay attention to whether Bitcoin can hold crucial support levels (such as $115,000); if it holds, a small long position can be attempted;
If mentioning 'trade war, interest rate hikes', beware of a chain reaction of stop-loss orders after breaking support; if it breaks, decisively reduce positions.
Use tools to hedge: Use TradingView to track market conditions in real-time, set automatic stop-loss (for example, automatically exit if it drops 10% below recent lows) to avoid emotional trading.
Conclusion
Trump's remarks have never been 'the market's holy decree', but they are enough to stir short-term turbulence. For investors, rather than guessing 'up or down', it is better to first build a solid defense — the long-term logic of cryptocurrencies will not change due to a special interview, but short-term fluctuations may cost the unprepared. At 8 PM tonight, the market's 'stress test' is about to begin, stabilizing positions is more important than guessing the direction.
Focus on the day: LTC GAS ILV
