Combining current market dynamics (increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, institutional funds accelerating into crypto assets), perpetual contract founder Arthur's judgment on Bitcoin's price in 2025 is more targeted — he believes BTC could reach $250,000 by the end of the year, with a conservative estimate of $150,000. Behind this are five viewpoints that are simple yet to the point:
Core Driver: U.S. Dollar Easing is the Biggest Catalyst
"When the U.S. prints money and engages in quantitative easing, all assets will rise, but Bitcoin will be the best performer." Arthur emphasized that the total supply of BTC is fixed (21 million), and the market capitalization is relatively small. Once massive funds pour in, the increase will inevitably be more exaggerated than stocks and gold. This has been particularly evident recently: Fed's Daly hinted at "more than two rate cuts within the year," leading to expectations of looser market liquidity, and BTC has been oscillating upward from around $100,000, showing signs of early capital positioning.Clear target: $250,000 is the year-end anchor, $1 million by 2028
He stated plainly that "$250,000 by the end of the year is achievable," and it is not a fantasy — based on the current BTC price of about $115,000, if the Fed cuts rates as expected and institutional ETF holdings continue to increase, doubling within six months is not impossible. The long-term target of "$1 million" is more like a bet on Bitcoin's penetration speed in global payments and reserve assets, with 2028 being just around the next halving cycle, where supply-demand dynamics may further amplify scarcity.Long-term main line: BTC remains the optimal solution, altcoins need timing
"My investment goal is to outperform Bitcoin, but that requires skill." Arthur does not deny the opportunities in altcoins — buying undervalued assets and exiting at the peak of cycles can indeed outperform BTC, but the premise is to "understand the cycles." In the current market environment, BTC's dominance remains around 52%, not yet reaching the "65%-70%" he mentioned, meaning the "Alt season" of widespread altcoin rallies still needs to wait, and heavily investing in BTC is more prudent at this stage.Capital Support: Institutions + Asian Capital Drive
"Systemic money printing leaves funds nowhere to go, and they will eventually flow into crypto assets." Arthur observed that Bitcoin trusts from institutions like BlackRock have seen record weekly net inflows, and the preference for crypto in Asian markets is even stronger — "Investors here do not trust a single currency system; beyond gold and real estate, Bitcoin is becoming a new 'anti-inflation option'". This is evident from the user growth data of crypto exchanges in Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia.Altcoin status: Bubble not deflated, rotation needs signals
He pointed out, "Many VC coins have no users and no products, and their FDV (fully diluted valuation) is absurdly high, which cannot support their prices." Currently, the activity in altcoins is more about local hotspots (such as Layer 2 and AI tracks) and lacks capital consensus. Only when BTC's dominance breaks 65% and the overall market stabilizes will funds spill over from leading coins into altcoins, then will be the opportunity for rotation.
With structural support, BTC's "time for space" logic
Arthur's core judgment is based on the bet of "Fed easing + scarcity + capital inflow" in a triple resonance. These factors are not short-term sentiments but are structural supports that can last 1-2 years, which is also why he dares to give a "$150,000 floor".
As an ordinary investor, you might refer to the "dual basket strategy": one part is to hold coins (keep BTC, earning money over time), and the other part is to use coin-based contracts for swing trading (using oscillating markets to increase returns). It's okay if you can't understand the complex logic; the key is not to chase highs and sell lows — in the crypto market, patience is more important than "smart operations."
Daily focus: PROVE OG ILV
