The probability of interest rate cuts has been fluctuating too much

Before the interest rate meeting on July 30, the probability of a rate cut in September was over 60%;

On July 31, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to over 40%;

On August 1, it jumped back up to over 80%.

It seems that this data only has reference value in the two weeks leading up to the interest rate meeting; beyond that, there are too many variables in between, making it meaningless.