$ETH #bearishmomentum

Overbought and Overextended: Is ETH Ready to Drop?

🧠 1H Candle Analysis – ETHUSDT

🕯️ Candle Reading

• Weak red candle with a small body and moderate upper wick, following a series of strong bullish candles

• High probability of a pause or short-term pullback after a +7.5% rally from the ~$3,400 level

• Closed at $3,674.89 after reaching a high of $3,716.93 — a sign of partial rejection at a key structure and Fibonacci zone

🔍 Technical Indicators – Confirmations

📈 RSI(6) = 85.68, RSI(12) = 81.04

• Extreme overbought territory, typically unsustainable on the 1H chart

• RSI(6) beginning to curve downward slightly: early signal of weakening momentum

📉 MACD

• DIF = 44.97 vs DEA = 33.25 → still showing strong bullish momentum, but:

• Histogram is starting to decline

• Possible histogram peak forming if a red candle confirms in the next hour

📊 Volume

• Decreasing volume compared to the previous 2 candles → buying pressure fading

• Red volume bar appears along with rejection wick: sign of profit-taking or potential tactical reversal

🧭 Structural and Macro Context

• This candle forms near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement ($3,638.27) on the 4H chart, approaching the 0.5 Fib level ($3,728.59)

• The daily structure remains bearish, and MACD on 1D has not confirmed a bullish crossover

• The current move appears to be a technical rebound within a larger bearish structure

✅ Conclusions

• This candle signals a potential pause or short-term reversal after an overextended rally

• It is not yet a strong reversal candle on its own but serves as a warning sign if followed by a wide-bodied bearish or engulfing candle

• Ideal to activate tactical short watch if price nears the $3,728–$3,785 zone and confirmed rejection is observed