Crypto海绵

This wave of TRB has directly increased by almost twice!!

The results of the US election on November 4 are coming soon, let's briefly discuss the impact of two possible outcomes on the cryptocurrency market.

Outcome 1: Trump is elected.

1. The new Republican Party platform will become more important: ending the US government's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, defending the rights of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining, self-custody, and trading freedom.

2. Trump will appoint a new SEC chairman, with three candidates who are favorable to the crypto space: Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer of Robinhood, which fully embraces the crypto space), Chris Giancarlo (former CFTC chairman, nicknamed the father of crypto), and Hester Peirce (one of the current five SEC commissioners, nicknamed the mother of crypto).

3. The DOGE division will be officially established, and cutting the budget department will surely generate news, bringing Dogecoin's exposure to another level.

4. Short-term benefits of Trump-themed coins will be fully realized.

Outcome 2: Harris is elected.

1. The steps towards regulatory openness for the crypto space will not be as significant. Gary Gensler may become Treasury Secretary, and among the new SEC chairman candidates, only Chris Brummer is crypto-friendly, but being a law professor may lead him to be similar to Gary after taking office.

2. Trump may go to jail, Musk may be targeted, and companies in the crypto space that support Trump may face scrutiny, especially those that align with the knowledgeable king out of fear of SEC action, such as Kraken and Gemini. The aforementioned related concept coins may face a deep pitfall.

3. Harris's climate policy will negatively impact high-energy-consuming POW mining.

4. Overall, it should present another bottom-fishing opportunity similar to '94. After all, the Democratic Party and Harris's major backer BlackRock still want to expand Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization.

The bull market has not ended; it has only reached a temporary peak and experienced a phase of selling.

From the perspective of wave theory, the rise of Ethereum since the beginning of April this year is likely a five-wave driven wave structure, and we are currently only in the third wave of the upward trend, entering the fourth wave correction phase. After the fourth wave completes its correction, there should still be a fifth wave of upward movement.

BTC and ETH Market Analysis on August 19:
Today's Highlights:

BTC is below the healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, while the daily level has returned to the healthy range. The expectation for today is to maintain consolidation, with support at 114000-115000 and resistance at 117000-118000.

ETH has returned to the healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, and the daily level is above the healthy range. The expectation for today is to maintain consolidation, with support at 4150-4250 and resistance at 4350-4450.

Whether this week can close in the green is very important for the subsequent trend of Bitcoin. If it closes in the green, then the future Bitcoin cloud chart is likely to turn upwards and continue to rally; otherwise, it will face significant retracement risks.

BTC will start a weak rebound!

1) The low point of this short-term decline is around 114,600, which is roughly the same as the expected 113,500;
2) Bulls are counterattacking, but the bullish momentum is relatively weak. It is estimated that the rebound will reach the 0.618 position, around 120,700 or 122,400. From the perspective of weak bullish momentum, it is predicted that the price will most likely rebound to around 120,700 and then stall;
3) Once the rebound is in place, BTC will start a significant drop, and breaking below 100,000 is possible, so be prepared.

The Core Means of the Dealer's Washing

It is almost impossible to wash out retail investors. As long as retail investors are still watching the market, the main force has ways to wash them out. If retail investors are not cleared out to a certain extent, it will affect the main force's trading plan, which is not allowed by the main force.
The main force has many tricks to clear out retail investors, and there are three tricks that are particularly uncomfortable for retail investors. Usually, under these three tricks, very few retail investors can sit still.

🟨 "Grinding", the main force often uses the trick of "grinding" to bottom out, dragging the time very long, and the coin price just won’t rise. It goes up 1U, down 2U, and retail investors with poor patience will be "ground" out by the main force.

🟨 "Pitting", after the "grinding", there are still many retail investors who have not been washed out, the main force will dig pits to continue clearing retail investors. The main force digs "pits" which will create a rapid volume drop in the coin price, causing a feeling of breaking down without seeing the bottom. This instills fear in retail investors, who do not know how long the coin price will continue to fall or how deep it will go. Many retail investors have been pitted by the main force, never having the chance to climb out again.

🟨 "Coercion and Inducement". After experiencing the above two tricks, if the washing has not reached the main force's ideal value, the main force will use the trick of "coercion and inducement" to wash again. The so-called "coercion and inducement" means that the main force raises the price for trial trading, allowing retail investors to see a chance to recover their costs or make a small profit, prompting them to take profits. For those who do not take profits, the main force will control the coin price to naturally fall back, forcing retail investors to exit.

Ethereum has experienced two consecutive days of increasing volume decline, and has broken below the short-term trend line, indicating that the major players have begun to distribute.

From a pessimistic perspective, the short-term upward trend has been damaged, and the short-term upward trend may slow down or has already ended.

From an optimistic perspective, Ethereum has not yet broken below the short-term support level, so there is still some hope for continuing to rise and break through the historical highs.

A common mistake for beginners is to get fully invested and then get hit, only to quickly run away as soon as they break even:

1. Every time Bitcoin pulls back, it's a good opportunity to assess the strength of altcoins. Although some altcoins are weak, there are still many that outperform Bitcoin or move in sync with it during this round;
2. Referencing the first point, a cutting strategy can be used.

If the market goes down to explore further, I will buy back all my positions. If there isn't a significant drop, I will gradually look for the bottoms in smaller ranges to buy.

When fully invested, I call this averaging down, and after reopening, I call this gradually buying the dip.

TRUMP The world cannot be without TRUMP, and the cryptocurrency world is no exception.

August 16 BTC, ETH Market Analysis:
Today's Highlights:
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy range, daily level has returned to a healthy range, intraday expectation remains in consolidation, with intraday support at 116000-117000 and resistance at 119000-120000.
ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy range, daily level is above the healthy range, intraday expectation remains in consolidation, with intraday support at 4350-4400 and resistance at 4600-4700.

The Air Force's short position near 4160 is set to gradually reduce its holdings. If you want to exit without any losses, it’s a bit difficult. If it rises again next week, you really won’t be able to get out. After encountering resistance near 4800 and pulling back a bit, it will surely break through 4800 and approach 5000.

Similarly, if BTC rises again, it will go directly to 127000-130000.

In the larger trend, BTC's high point is still far from being reached, so ETH and SOL have not yet peaked. The weekly and monthly lines of these two major assets remain strong as morning wood. Mistaking short adjustments for a bull run means it’s better not to miss out than to miss out.

When you stand on the 3rd floor and look down, you might see garbage.

When you stand on the 50th floor and look down, all you see is scenery.

When you look at Bitcoin from a smaller timeframe, such as hourly or daily, you might see spikes, traps for longs, traps for shorts, and so on.

If you look at a larger timeframe, Bitcoin appears as a beautiful oscillating upward curve.

Bull markets often see sharp declines
Mainly due to market manipulators taking advantage of negative news to harvest high leverage
The viewpoint remains the same as before
Don't rush to withdraw all spot positions
As long as there is a pullback in contracts, gradually buy the dips to go long
Firmly optimistic about the final wave of rebound before the end of September
Ethereum will at least touch a new high around 5000
Currently, the market may still fluctuate for a while
When facing pullbacks, seize the opportunity to boldly buy in batches

Recently, there shouldn't have been any discussions about Bitcoin's monthly line. Each bull market's monthly line peaks at three tops before ending. This bull market is also at three peaks, and the height of each round is at the red line on the chart. If it’s at this height, there might be about 2-3 months of movement left, with the upward trend lasting around 6 weeks. After that, Bitcoin may likely undergo high-level consolidation and distribution.

SOL
The four-hour trend from July 14 to today has had almost 6 trades. There's no need to be greedy; even if we only profit from 3 trades, as long as we accumulate gains over the long term, it will be very considerable for SOL.