Crypto海绵

This wave of TRB has directly increased by almost twice!!

The results of the US election on November 4 are coming soon, let's briefly discuss the impact of two possible outcomes on the cryptocurrency market.

Outcome 1: Trump is elected.

1. The new Republican Party platform will become more important: ending the US government's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, defending the rights of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining, self-custody, and trading freedom.

2. Trump will appoint a new SEC chairman, with three candidates who are favorable to the crypto space: Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer of Robinhood, which fully embraces the crypto space), Chris Giancarlo (former CFTC chairman, nicknamed the father of crypto), and Hester Peirce (one of the current five SEC commissioners, nicknamed the mother of crypto).

3. The DOGE division will be officially established, and cutting the budget department will surely generate news, bringing Dogecoin's exposure to another level.

4. Short-term benefits of Trump-themed coins will be fully realized.

Outcome 2: Harris is elected.

1. The steps towards regulatory openness for the crypto space will not be as significant. Gary Gensler may become Treasury Secretary, and among the new SEC chairman candidates, only Chris Brummer is crypto-friendly, but being a law professor may lead him to be similar to Gary after taking office.

2. Trump may go to jail, Musk may be targeted, and companies in the crypto space that support Trump may face scrutiny, especially those that align with the knowledgeable king out of fear of SEC action, such as Kraken and Gemini. The aforementioned related concept coins may face a deep pitfall.

3. Harris's climate policy will negatively impact high-energy-consuming POW mining.

4. Overall, it should present another bottom-fishing opportunity similar to '94. After all, the Democratic Party and Harris's major backer BlackRock still want to expand Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization.

We can understand the abstraction of the trading system as:

Every expected return = Win rate × Profit amount per trade – Loss rate × Loss amount per trade, simplified as: the average of the money earned per trade minus the money lost per trade.
Here we consider three roles:
1. Retail Investor: Win rate 45%, expected return = 0.45 × 1.5 – 0.55 × 1 = +0.125

2. Ordinary Trader: Win rate 50%, expected return = 0.50 × 1.5 – 0.50 × 1 = +0.25

3. Professional Trader: Win rate 55%, expected return = 0.55 × 1.5 – 0.45 × 1 = +0.375

You can see that from retail investors to ordinary traders, a 5% increase in win rate doubles the return, and a 10% increase in win rate raises the expected value by 200%, the gap is much larger than imagined...

Bear markets often rebound multiple times, and news sentiment may change, but due to the lack of any change in overall data, it will continue to decline.

Stay away from third and fourth-tier or small wallets, as they have relatively poor solvency, and bear markets can easily trigger significant events.

In every cycle, there are stablecoin depegging events, some of which can quickly recover after rumors are dispelled, while others may never recover at all.

Not every VC coin will drop; usually, there are always a few strong coins that will keep rising before experiencing significant drops.

If the bear market does not cause turmoil and only consumes, then after confirming that the overall trend has returned, one can join in, not only keeping the principal but also outperforming over 95% of people.

To be honest, this market has become a bit frustrating. Bitcoin has soared from 20,000 to 100,000, gaining momentum, but looking back, what about altcoins? They seem to be pinned down, not moving an inch. Every time Bitcoin breaks a new high, I fantasize about whether it's time for altcoins to take off, but the result has repeatedly disappointed me.

Where exactly is the problem? Is it that the overall valuation of altcoins has long been too high, leaving no room for a rebound? Or is it that early VCs have already made their investments, just waiting for each project to be listed on Binance and OKX before cashing out with a market cap of several hundred million dollars? Given that many new coins recently have a circulating market cap starting at 300 million dollars, it seems more likely to be the latter.

The story before was about undervaluation soaring, and now it’s about overvaluation slowly dying. On one side, Bitcoin keeps rising higher, while on the other, altcoins resemble a bubble inflated to its limit, yet failing to burst. The question is, how long can this bubble last if there isn’t a new wave of retail investors flooding in? Is the true altcoin bull market still far away, or will it never come at all?

Why is it said that Bitcoin must once again surpass the $100,000 mark to welcome a significant rally in altcoins?

The $100,000 threshold for Bitcoin has become an important psychological anchor in the crypto market, as evidenced by the behavioral logic of institutional investors—research reports from several venture capital firms indicate that when BTC breaks through this threshold, its asset attributes will accelerate the evolution towards the 'digital gold' value storage paradigm. The market liquidity structure may thus experience significant differentiation: mainstream tokens will show a stronger liquidity siphoning effect, while the explosive cycle of altcoins may only truly arrive after BTC completes a key breakthrough.

From the perspective of market evolution logic, the emergence of two altcoin seasons in March and November 2024 essentially represents a paradigm shift window formed by Bitcoin breaking through historical highs. When BTC breaks through previous highs, it not only breaks the psychological shackles that have persisted for two years but also triggers professional institutions, including quantitative funds and market makers, to adjust their asset allocation strategies. These market participants, who possess strong pricing power, often prioritize deep liquidity, which fundamentally reshapes the value of the altcoin market.

The current liquidity contraction in the market is concerning; on-chain data shows that the total market value of stablecoins continues to flow out, and CEX spot trading volumes have shrunk to deep bear levels. This pressure on capital creates a negative feedback loop with market confidence—institutional investors, in the absence of clear price coordinates, tend to maintain low-risk exposure.

Therefore, Bitcoin breaking through the integer threshold not only has technical significance but, more importantly, builds new market consensus. This confidence premium can often leverage a fund effect of 5-10 times the actual liquidity. From the perspective of behavioral finance, when FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment resonates with market makers' liquidity supply, the market will enter a true phase of value reassessment.

The altcoin sector is consolidating in sync with the mainstream, with most cryptocurrencies showing little fluctuation. Once the mainstream stabilizes, it can be considered to start following up. BSC has launched the latest activities, and the MEME market can be closely observed. The altcoin CAKE shows a healthy trend and can be considered for follow-up. We are waiting for the BSC ecosystem to become active, and the ecosystem heat on the SOL chain is also recovering, so it can also be closely observed. For the altcoins that have already been acquired, be patient and wait for the market to warm up.
Fundamental news: None
Primary market information:
The activity on the SOL chain is also recovering, so MEME coins can be closely observed.

April 29 BTC, ETH Market Analysis:
Today's Highlights:
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels returning to healthy levels, daily level returning to healthy levels, intraday expectation to maintain consolidation, intraday support 93000-93500, resistance 95000-95500
ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels returning to healthy levels, daily level returning to healthy levels, intraday expectation to maintain consolidation, intraday support 1700-1750, resistance 1830-1880

True trading experts are not those with exceptional skills, but those with exceptional mindset
Because technical skills have tutorials available in the market, and they are easy to learn
But the mindset is something no one can teach you; you need to combine it with real trading to understand

The two simplest tests
First, before entering the market, can you patiently wait for your own signal without being influenced by the rapid fluctuations of the candlestick chart?
Second, after entering the market, it's another test; the candlestick chart is changing, and entering the market is unlikely to be perfect.

Many people ask me about position management. My current position is less than 30%. When will I increase my position?

Just hold on a little longer, it should be time to increase the position soon. The signal: as long as there is substantial contact between China and the U.S., regardless of whether an agreement can be reached,

it is time to increase the position, applicable to U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares & Bitcoin.

For the cryptocurrency market, I believe that this round only BTC is the core,

you are very likely to see Bitcoin prices reach new highs, while other altcoins are struggling to survive. Don't pay attention to altcoins; it's better to not make money than to lose less.

People with the surname Sun are all very impressive, have you noticed?

Monkey King - Sun Wukong
Medicine King - Sun Simiao
Military King - Sun Wu
King of Wu - Sun Quan
Coin King - Sun Yuchen

The rise and fall of altcoins typically goes through four stages: turning point, testing, one-sided rise, and acceleration.

A real market trend does not suddenly explode but gradually unfolds along this path.

Currently, most altcoins are still in the turning point stage, such as AXL, JUP, INJ, CHZ, etc.; a few coins have entered the testing stage, such as BCH, RAY, XRP; only a very few, like SUI, FART, TRUMP, have experienced a one-sided rise.

As for the acceleration stage, it has not yet appeared in the current market.

This indicates that the overall market is still far from a trend reversal, market sentiment has not reached consensus, and the price structure has not yet completed the transition of support and resistance.

In this stage, the best strategy is: to quietly identify high-odds positions, wait for the market to mature naturally, rather than staring at the candlestick chart, repeatedly telling oneself 'I will miss out.'

If you are holding a position with a high funding rate but do not want to pay the rate.

You can choose to do "rate hedging"

Which means opening an equal but opposite position before the funding rate settlement.

Most major exchanges, such as OKX, have the function of holding positions in both directions.

One thing to consider is the issue of transaction fees, but if you are entering and exiting with limit orders, plus the fee discounts, it basically won't be higher than the funding rate you need to pay.

However, it is not recommended to hold positions; if you need to take a loss, take it. You might hold on for 9 times, but you won't be able to hold on for the 10th time, and it could be the end.

Altcoins are consolidating along with mainstream coins, with most cryptocurrencies showing little fluctuation. Once major coins stabilize, it may be worth considering following suit. BSC has launched the latest activities, and the MEME market deserves more attention. The altcoin CAKE is showing a healthy trend and could be considered for following. We are waiting for the subsequent activation of the BSC ecosystem. The ecosystem on the SOL chain is recovering in popularity, which is also worth paying attention to. For altcoins that have already been acquired, be patient and wait for the market to warm up.
Fundamental news: None
Primary market information:
The activity on the SOL chain is also recovering; more attention can be given to MEME coins.

April 28 BTC, ETH Market Analysis:

Today's Highlights:

BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels return to healthy levels, daily level returns to healthy levels, intraday expectation remains in consolidation, intraday support at 92500-93000, resistance at 94500-95000.

ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels return to healthy levels, daily level returns to healthy levels, intraday expectation remains in consolidation, intraday support at 1700-1750, resistance at 1830-1880.

The alpaca should have peaked; the funding rate here is still negative, so I'm hesitant to short directly, fearing a big rebound that could wipe out my short position before it drops again.

It would be great to have a big rebound; ideally, I hope for an opportunity around 0.24-0.26, and I would short one position to give it a try! If there’s no opportunity, so be it; I've already enjoyed enough from the long positions.