Crypto海绵

This wave of TRB has directly increased by almost twice!!

The results of the US election on November 4 are coming soon, let's briefly discuss the impact of two possible outcomes on the cryptocurrency market.

Outcome 1: Trump is elected.

1. The new Republican Party platform will become more important: ending the US government's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, defending the rights of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining, self-custody, and trading freedom.

2. Trump will appoint a new SEC chairman, with three candidates who are favorable to the crypto space: Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer of Robinhood, which fully embraces the crypto space), Chris Giancarlo (former CFTC chairman, nicknamed the father of crypto), and Hester Peirce (one of the current five SEC commissioners, nicknamed the mother of crypto).

3. The DOGE division will be officially established, and cutting the budget department will surely generate news, bringing Dogecoin's exposure to another level.

4. Short-term benefits of Trump-themed coins will be fully realized.

Outcome 2: Harris is elected.

1. The steps towards regulatory openness for the crypto space will not be as significant. Gary Gensler may become Treasury Secretary, and among the new SEC chairman candidates, only Chris Brummer is crypto-friendly, but being a law professor may lead him to be similar to Gary after taking office.

2. Trump may go to jail, Musk may be targeted, and companies in the crypto space that support Trump may face scrutiny, especially those that align with the knowledgeable king out of fear of SEC action, such as Kraken and Gemini. The aforementioned related concept coins may face a deep pitfall.

3. Harris's climate policy will negatively impact high-energy-consuming POW mining.

4. Overall, it should present another bottom-fishing opportunity similar to '94. After all, the Democratic Party and Harris's major backer BlackRock still want to expand Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization.

Although $ETH has performed stronger in recent days and has broken through the high point of May 29th, the daily RSI and MACD for $ETH have now shown a bearish divergence, and the price has retreated back below the high point of May 29th, resulting in a pullback.
The signals from the market are not optimistic; if Bitcoin continues to decline, it may lead to a drop in Ethereum as well.

Therefore, caution is advised when trading Ethereum and altcoins at this time.

BTC historical new high, ETH desperately chasing,
but many altcoins are still hovering at the bottom.

If it consolidates at a high level here, or if altcoins do not follow the drop.
Then seize the time to position yourself.

Yesterday's CPI was favorable, first up then down
All those who chased the rise were trapped
Especially those who chased Ethereum
Because Ethereum was very strong yesterday, many people chased it
Fortunately, I took a break yesterday
I usually don’t participate on CPI days
It often just involves sharp fluctuations up and down
There's no need to fight a battle with no chance of winning
Save your bullets
Isn't it better to wait and fight battles you are sure to win later?

The spot I had in hand sold part of it last night, and the other part was put on order but didn't sell, and now it has pulled back a lot. $theta was sold, $neiro $turbo $the were placed on order but didn't sell, and the others that remained unchanged are $btc $bnb $eth $uni $gps $plume $koma. I will continue to wait for a liquidation opportunity, and after liquidating, I need to organize a strategy to maximize profits.

Binance changed its avatar and banner, and launched a few pump-and-dump schemes which I saw early on but didn’t want to get involved in. Now it’s reached over 1 million, and there are many trending coins on the bnbchain without major players, reaching almost 1 million is basically the peak.

Alpha has updated the scoring rules; now, alpha tokens that meet the conditions and have done LP selections can also earn points, which previously did not earn points. However, this does not overlap with the balance, so it doesn’t seem to have a significant impact.

The altcoin sector is rising in sync with the mainstream, market sentiment is recovering somewhat, the altcoin index is still not high, and the mainstream has stabilized, making it a good time to build positions. In the ETH sector, focus on SSV, EIGEN, and ETHFI can continue to hold. PENDLE's trend remains good, and those who haven't followed can consider doing so as the daily chart is expected to start. BSC has launched the latest activities, and Alpha activities are frequent, so it's a good idea to accumulate Alpha points. The MEME market deserves more attention, and the activity on the SOL chain is recovering, so keep an eye on that as well. For altcoins already acquired, be patient and wait for the market to warm up.
Fundamental news: None
Primary market information:
The activity on the SOL chain has decreased, so pay more attention to the BSC chain situation. Recently, GAS fees have been adjusted, trading volume has surged, and on-chain activity has increased. Keep an eye on MEME, as there may be a significant opportunity.

BTC and ETH Market Analysis for June 12:

Today's Highlights:

BTC has returned to a healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and the daily chart is back in a healthy range as well. A consolidation repair is expected throughout the day, with support at 107500-108000 and resistance at 109500-110000.

ETH has returned to a healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and the daily chart is back in a healthy range as well. A consolidation repair is expected throughout the day, with support at 2700-2750 and resistance at 2850-2900.

If I were to trade a certain altcoin, I would wait for Ethereum to stabilize at 2800 and Bitcoin to stabilize at 110000.
After that, there are two paths:
① Follow the market to surge, going through a short emotional cycle.
② Wait for the market to continue breaking out and then pull back after 1-2 weeks, once the risk is released, then push up the price.
Therefore, if the main focus is on altcoins, and I don’t want to miss the direct entry into ①, I want absolute safety and will wait for ②. However, considering the current cost-effectiveness of altcoins, I lean towards direct entry, but overall it’s still about buying strong assets and not weak ones. After all, it’s still a market with exhausted liquidity; if a wave of market movement doesn’t arise, it’s useless. Referring to last month, what didn’t happen just didn’t happen, and thinking again about the momentum inevitably involves some market washing.

《Evaluating the Difficulty of Making Money on 4 Chains》

1. On Solana, if you look at historical candlestick charts, using the weekly chart, you will find that there are very few assets worth holding for the long term.
On Base, there are many more assets worth holding for the long term.
But strangely, the buzz on Solana has always been much louder than on Base.

2. The characteristics of the BSC chain?
The general feeling is that it is an easy mode.
There are several reasons for this:
The Chinese community is very close to the information from the market makers.
The chain is slow, leading to a slower pace, and operations are more relaxed.
Valuation is clear; CZ retweets for hundreds of thousands, changing profile pictures for millions, and alpha versions for tens of millions.
Projects that come from the bottom up rarely have strong market makers disrupting the valuation benchmarks.
On BSC, what should we do about the conspiracies that haven’t called us to get on board?
Ignore it, ride the wave, or cause some disruption?
If you are not in the conspiracy sequence, it’s negative EV.
If you are in the conspiracy sequence, it’s positive EV.
Memes on BSC
From the 4-hour chart, they are also not worth holding for the long term.

3. The Ethereum mainnet is somewhat like a slowed-down BSC; the risk of going to zero is too high.
The heavy downward pressure cannot be sustained, and there are few themes.

4. From a retrospective perspective, without considering conspiracies,
making money on Base is the easiest.

Ethereum's short-term head and shoulders bottom has broken through. If it follows this script, it could create a historical new high in the short term. The left shoulder has a spike, and caution is needed for the right shoulder. Will it follow the same script, dropping down before recovering?

XLM reminders are as follows:
Direction: Spot
Entry Point: Around 0.28
Target Price: 0.29—0.31—0.33
Stop Loss Price: 1-hour K-line closing price below 0.26

Altcoin segments are rising in sync with the mainstream, market sentiment is recovering somewhat, the altcoin index is still not high, the mainstream has stabilized, making it a good time to accumulate. In the ETH track, focus on SSV, EIGEN, and ETHFI which can continue to be held. PENDLE's trend remains good, with the daily line expected to initiate; those who have not followed can consider doing so. BSC has launched new activities, with Alpha activities being frequent, so it’s a good idea to accumulate Alpha points. The MEME market can be closely monitored, and the ecosystem on the SOL chain is regaining heat, which can also be paid attention to. For altcoins already acquired, patiently wait for the market to warm up.
Fundamental news: None
Primary market information:
The activity on the SOL chain has decreased, so pay more attention to the BSC chain situation. Recently, GAS fees have been adjusted, trading volume has surged, and on-chain activity has increased. Keep an eye on MEME, as there is a possibility of golden dogs emerging.

June 11 BTC, ETH Market Analysis:

Today's Highlights:

BTC has entered the overbought zone on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, while the daily chart has returned to a healthy range. The expectation for today is to maintain an upward trend, with support at 108,500-109,000 and resistance at 111,000-112,000.

ETH has entered the overbought zone on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, while the daily chart has returned to a healthy range. The expectation for today is to maintain an upward trend, with support at 2,700-2,750 and resistance at 3,000-3,050.

Position allocation is indeed a very, very important dimension. It may not be obvious at first glance, but over a long period, especially during extreme market conditions, it can lead to significant differences in returns.

However, is there a standard answer for position allocation? With 100,000 in capital and 10,000,000 in capital, the position allocation will definitely be different. Long-term investing and short-term trading are, of course, also different.

Some people manage their positions against the trend, increasing their holdings in a bear market and selling to those chasing gains in a bull market. Others may completely hold cash in a bear market and only go long when in a bull market. Who is right and who is wrong?

Good morning
As soon as night falls, the market pulls back sharply, while during the day it adjusts.
Ethereum has finally broken through the fluctuation range, but market enthusiasm is average. I've come across several big names who have exited the circle; in fact, if you completely leave this circle, it's really hard to step back, as you get used to the excitement of various trades here and stay updated with the latest information.
I particularly agree with the saying 'extreme situations must revert,' because doing anything to an extreme will definitely backfire. In this circle, what you once believed in, what faith you had, may completely change once you know the truth.
Maintain a calm mindset. Wishing everyone prosperity.
Bitcoin has had three consecutive months of bullish candlesticks. I've seen many posts about people trying to time the market; in fact, most people are now trading with a short-term focus, and there isn't much long-term trading happening. Just hoping for a good rebound in your altcoins to cash out.

Let me tell a joke. Since May 29th, I've been keeping an eye on a meme coin $UNI, and before it surged, I got washed out;

This kind of operation is what is famously known as shearing the sheep in a volatile range, getting off the train as soon as the trend starts; well, pure stupid operation.

Actually, I really suggest to my friends that if you are not exceptionally talented, take out a portion of your money, and learn to do dollar-cost averaging like Ni Da, extend the time horizon, and then go do whatever you need to do. Trading is really not something humans should do, it's exhausting!

If you think the current price is high, and are hesitant about dollar-cost averaging with time-weighted methods;

I’ll teach you a good method: Bitcoin usually has about 2-3 major drops every year, and countless minor drops as well. Buy during each drop and just hold, buy big during major drops and small during minor drops. This is another way of dollar-cost averaging.

Of course, this is based on your belief that Bitcoin can reach higher prices.