Data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 89.1%. If all goes as expected, September will see the first interest rate cut of the year, signaling the arrival of a new market trend.
The cryptocurrency market saw a sharp decline, with a spike stopping the drop during Sunday morning trading. Bitcoin is currently rebounding with a volume decrease, creating a $3,000 range, temporarily suppressed by $114500-$115000. In the last 24 hours, a total of 52,549 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $140 million.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin's daily chart shows a clear rebound after touching the previous high of $112,000, with a rebound of about 3,000 points. In the short term, the key resistance level above is at $116,000. If it can effectively break through, it is expected to continue the upward trend; otherwise, prices may continue to oscillate in the bottom area.
The upcoming trend roughly has two possibilities:
Scenario One: Bitcoin encounters resistance around $116,000 during the rebound, then falls back again to test the 80-day moving average support, completing the A wave decline structure, followed by a B wave rebound.
Scenario Two:The A wave decline has ended, and we are currently in the B wave rebound phase. If it can break through the $116,000 resistance level, it will further open up the rebound space.
I personally lean towards Scenario One.
The current key observation point is whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the resistance area of $116,000, which will determine if the market is a rebound in a pullback or the starting point of a new upward trend.
Ethereum
The current market is at the tail end of a large cycle of oscillation, showing a typical flag pattern consolidation. The key resistance level above is around $4,000, with the first support area below at around $3,500. Combining previous moving average support and chip concentration areas, this region has strong defensive characteristics.
From the daily structure, technical indicators show certain support, and a rebound is expected in the short term. However, caution is needed: if this rebound is once again blocked at high levels, there is a possibility of continued decline to test the bottom, with the ultimate support level looking down to around $3,200.
Ethereum (ETH) short-term strategy reference:
The current upper pressure range is between $3580-$3596, and the key support area below is at $3440-$3380.
$3508-$3484 is the current short-term low buying reference range. It is recommended to avoid blindly shorting in the middle price range and to wait for the price to rebound to the resistance near the 12-hour level before considering short opportunities.
Special reminder: Before ETH breaks below the $3440-$3380 range, it is not recommended to blindly chase short positions to avoid being quickly stopped out by a short-term rebound. The strategy should be to maintain patience, waiting for clearer price structure confirmation before intervening.
Altcoins
Altcoins are currently experiencing a rebound after being oversold. OP's lowest was 0.614, we are at 0.61; ENA's lowest was 0.5110, we are at 0.5155. Enjoy the rebound, which has already risen above 114700. The probability of continuation exists, and a reversal will require at least breaking above 117500. Those who followed the sponge's layout for these two coins have successfully bottomed out.
Sponge took the opportunity of the crash to bottom fish PEPE and ENA, with ENA topping the gainers list, making a staggering 831%! A crash is the best opportunity to bottom fish quality altcoins.
In the future, BTC and ETH will steadily grow in market value, with quality leading altcoins closely following suit. During the market FOMO phase, there will be surges. The current liquidity is insufficient to support a full altcoin season; we must not let air coins deceive us out of our chips.
Recently, the community will recommend a few coins with explosive growth potential, and Sponge will guide everyone to aim for the wealth opportunities in altcoins.
On-chain
Troll: The Chinese community has not reacted to the rise of trolls; a search for tags reveals very little mention. The future potential is far larger than what it is now. Slow bottoming at 10 times, acceleration phase at 5 times. The tail wags the dog; people only shout for their own bags.
Wangchai: Wangchai is currently changing its main force, and Bonk's ecosystem funding is gradually entering the market. The main force's entry surely involves washing and absorbing chips. Since July 25, it is indeed observable that the main force has been accumulating chips, roughly obtaining 14% of the chips, but the volume is still insufficient. Optimism requires patience, awaiting the next lift-off.
lolcoin: The narrative is that it's the world's first memecoin, existing even before the term 'memecoin' was coined, back in 2011 with lol_coin. The market maker is quite interesting, continuously trading chips back and forth, moving about 10% of chips from the cluster to non-cluster, which indicates an attempt to hide trading traces. Is there something going on? Worth paying attention to.
