Before Friday's non-farm payroll, in September, the probability of no interest rate cut is 63%, and the probability of a 25 basis points cut is 35%.

Do you know why the market just plummeted???
Because the non-farm payroll data for May and June has been revised down to an outrageous extent.
The non-farm payroll increase in May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000;
The non-farm payroll increase in June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000.
The total revision for May and June is 258,000.
This is a full 10 times off, it’s outrageous, but it’s true.
Although the data is conducive to interest rate cuts, it has caused short-term panic.
If this kind of non-farm data had been announced from the beginning, the Fed would actually have had a direct reason to cut interest rates yesterday; in this context, Powell's actions were naturally bound to spark controversy.
The poor performance of non-farm data theoretically favors expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the magnitude of this data's 'discrepant revision' is quite large, which is a rare situation, making it hard not to question the possibility of human adjustments. Regardless of any explanations given later, the short-term market is unlikely to fully accept it.
However, as the market gradually digests the emotions, if this weak non-farm data is ultimately interpreted as a signal for the Fed to cut interest rates soon, then the sentiment in US stocks and risk assets like cryptocurrencies may quickly warm up again. #非农就业数据 #币圈 #区块链