Federal Reserve's September Rate Cut 89.1%! Blockchain 'Golden Pit' to Appear, Four Types of Currencies May Welcome Hundredfold Opportunities

CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 89.1%, with expectations of a 50 basis points cut in October exceeding 60%. This 'monetary flood' may tear open a decade-long wealth gap, but the winner may not necessarily be Bitcoin.

1. Rate Cut: Capital's 'Reorganization'

Don't be misled by 'rate cut = liquidity'. History shows that after rate cuts in 2019 and 2020, Bitcoin remained stagnant until QE was initiated, leading to a surge. Now the logic has changed:

2. Four Types of Currencies May Become the Biggest Winners

1. Bitcoin: Institutional 'Non-USD Asset'

Under the debt pressure of the Trump administration, sovereign funds regard BTC as a 'decade-long purchasing power guarantee'. IBIT's holdings are 40% from 'long money', betting on asset preservation after the erosion of USD credit.

2. Ethereum Ecosystem:

MakerDAO: DAI interest rates cut from 3.6% to 1.8%. If USD depreciation lowers DeFi interest rates, 'farmers' may restart the 'spread game' through cross-market arbitrage. Aave/Compound: Whales use ETH as collateral to borrow stablecoins to increase BTC holdings; the 'double dip' strategy after the rate cut may boost ecosystem trading volume.

3. Traditional Financial Participants: ONDO, UNI

ONDO: Bringing government bonds onto the blockchain; if a stablecoin bank run occurs, integrating traditional credit may become a new favorite for institutions. UNI: A 'super event' for decentralized exchanges is approaching, liquidity rewards may attract funds back to the CEX regulatory period.

3. Three Major Risks: Beware of Black Swans

Rate cut falls short of expectations: If only a 25 basis point cut occurs in September, the 62% high leverage in the crypto market may trigger a chain of liquidations. 'Fake Moves' in Economic Recession: If the unemployment rate rises, BTC may drop along with tech stocks.

Instead of waiting on the sidelines, join Old Hu in the burn!