老胡论趋势a

Another day of waking up and stopping at a profit. Midnight reveals sufficient momentum for the futures market, and one-sided downward trends can be grasped without hesitation. The market conditions are also very cooperative, continuously probing downwards, with the morning low reaching the 112600 level, a drop of over two thousand points. The futures positions we set up easily reached the target points, achieving profits of 1700 points on the main contract and 73 points on the secondary contract. I believe that friends who followed this strategy should have gained unknown rewards.

From the current market perspective, the main contract continued to adjust and broke new lows at midnight. The market is now in a familiar stage of volatile recovery. From the four-hour chart, after a massive bearish candle recorded in the early morning, bullish momentum has shown signs of weakening. After testing the upper resistance level, the market pulled back again, but the intensity of the pullback has significantly weakened. It is expected that the main contract will operate in a narrow range of fluctuations within the day. Observing from the daily chart, the main contract successfully closed in the negative, continuing the bullish trend, and the trading volume has increased simultaneously. Currently, it is the highest moment to enter the market.

Main contract: 113700～114000 buy, ⬆️ looking at 11100#比特币

Do you know why the market just plummeted???
Because the non-farm payroll data for May and June has been revised down to an outrageous extent.
The non-farm payroll increase in May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000;
The non-farm payroll increase in June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000.
The total revision for May and June is 258,000.
This is a full 10 times off, it’s outrageous, but it’s true.
Although the data is conducive to interest rate cuts, it has caused short-term panic.
If this kind of non-farm data had been announced from the beginning, the Fed would actually have had a direct reason to cut interest rates yesterday; in this context, Powell's actions were naturally bound to spark controversy.
The poor performance of non-farm data theoretically favors expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the magnitude of this data's 'discrepant revision' is quite large, which is a rare situation, making it hard not to question the possibility of human adjustments. Regardless of any explanations given later, the short-term market is unlikely to fully accept it.
However, as the market gradually digests the emotions, if this weak non-farm data is ultimately interpreted as a signal for the Fed to cut interest rates soon, then the sentiment in US stocks and risk assets like cryptocurrencies may quickly warm up again. #非农就业数据 #币圈 #区块链

Briefly talk about August

In addition to the recent weak regulation and framework establishment of cryptocurrency by the SEC, there are three major positive developments within the cryptocurrency market:

1. Large unlocks have decreased by 52%, alleviating selling pressure
2. Expansion of stablecoin supply, with on-chain issuance of USDT and USDC expected to continue to surge
3. $ETH spot ETF staking second application window

Additionally, after experiencing a net outflow of funds on July 22, the ETF returned to significant fundraising on the 25th, while the overall daily trading volume in the cryptocurrency market began to rebound, with marginal buying starting to test a return ahead of macroeconomic conditions.

The risks have basically been discussed extensively, with the FOMC meeting in early August and the countdown to Trump’s tariffs, which are primarily focused on inflation and tariffs; unless there’s a black swan event, the impact on sentiment is minimal.

The altcoin market is essentially the biggest loser; it remains to be seen if August can break the curse. With over half of 2025 gone, depth is still concentrated on $BTC and a few mainstream chains, while altcoins remain below their 2021 highs, with no sustained influx of incremental funds. #白宫数字资产报告 #比特币

Midday trend analysis and forecast, practical operations can focus on homepage information #比特币

ETH 3900 High Jump, Next Stop 4000 or 3000?
Yesterday, ETH broke through 3940 USD, reaching a new high for the year! Analysis by Lao Hu
1. The culprit behind the crash surfaces: Is the tariff benefit actually a "smokescreen"?
On the surface, the crash was triggered by the implementation of the US-EU tariff agreement, leading to a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" scenario — on July 28, the US and EU announced a tariff reduction, and the market surged, with ETH hitting 3940 USD. Once the news was fully digested, profits were quickly taken, resulting in over 3 billion liquidated in 24 hours across the network.
However, digging deeper into on-chain data reveals that things are not that simple:
On the eve of the crash, Ethereum's PoS exit queue suddenly surged to 743,800 ETH (worth over 2.9 billion USD), causing historic congestion! Withdrawal delays exceeded 12 days, and the staked whales couldn't escape.
2. The bulls' hidden cards exposed: 460 million ammunition is ready, just waiting for a gunshot.
Institutional bullets are firing: In July, Ethereum ETF inflows reached 4.67 billion, crushing Bitcoin's net outflows;
A mysterious whale consumed 108,000 ETH in a single day (worth nearly 280 million USD), with an on-chain route pointing directly to custody cold wallets —
3. The next scene: Is it "the tyrant lifting the tripod" or "free fall"? Pay attention to these three signals.
In this big game, retail investors need to understand the whales' body language to stand firm:
Staking exit queue: If the number drops below 500,000 ETH, the alarm is lifted, and the bull run channel reopens;
Exchange ETH reserves: Continued decline means whales are accumulating, while a sudden surge indicates a countdown to sell-off;
4-hour EMA defense line: If it holds above 3750 USD, it signifies the bulls' declaration of war #以太坊ETF