Ms. Bayley missed her last chance to escape this week. When and where will this decline stop, ready for a bottom-fishing opportunity? Will there be an interest rate cut in September? Let's review the market!
Last week, I discussed whether the third wave of the uptrend had concluded and the fourth wave of the downtrend was about to begin. The key was whether Ether could break through new highs. Ether did reach a new high on Monday, but the altcoins didn't follow suit and plummeted! It's so hard to get stuck after adding to your positions at high levels. I know the pain! If you misjudge the situation, you'll be punished. Sister Bei admits defeat! Just wait, dog dealer, I'll be back.
Anyway, this week's super macro week was truly thrilling, and its impact on the market is undeniable. Take a look at three sets of startling data points that will make you gasp! Not to mention the nearly 5% plunges in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two days, MicroStrategy, COINBASE, and CIRCLE have retreated 20%, 30%, and 37%, respectively, from their peaks two weeks ago. Other cryptocurrency stocks like BMNR and SBET have seen their share prices more than halved! In comparison, Bitcoin has only fallen 9%, making our resilient altcoins seem a bit more appealing.
Looking at two other sets of data, the liquidation of long positions in the No. 1 ETF, exceeding $700 million, ranked second highest in the past six months. Judging by the Bitcoin price's decline, it's no surprise that the primary cause of the liquidation was altcoin long positions. Furthermore, the No. 1 Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $812 million, while the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $150 million, both of which were second-highest on record. And this is just the beginning; major capital is clearly fleeing, and risk aversion is rapidly intensifying.
Let's talk about the interest rate cut mess again. Powell insisted on no rate cut and gave no expectations, and the market fell. Friday's non-farm payroll data clearly pointed to a rate cut, but the market still fell. How can bulls survive? I can understand Trump's outburst. If Bayley were in his position, he'd want to send in the Secret Service to take down Powell!
The non-farm payroll data was wildly off the mark, yet another public slap in the face for global investors! Following the downward revision, non-farm payroll growth over the past three months averaged just 35,000, the worst performance since the pandemic. What does this indicate? It indicates that the US economy is in dire straits and that Americans are struggling to find jobs. Such dismal data, compounded by the impact of the tariff war, has created another "Black Friday" for the US stock market. Furious, Trump immediately announced the immediate dismissal of the Director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Without any evidence, Trump declared, "In my opinion, today's employment data was manipulated to make the Republican Party and me look bad." In short: The data you've released is completely false; our US economy is strong and thriving. But the capital market votes with its feet; the reaction of stock prices and currencies reveals the true picture.
At this point, I believe that despite the various actors' struggles in August, a September interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion. Once a downward trend is established, it's difficult to reverse in the short term. I'm keeping my hands off this week; the key question is what to do next. Bitcoin has fallen below 113,000, and Ether has fallen below 3,480, both key support levels, reaching new lows. The short- to medium-term outlook is clearly bearish. Judging by the price alone, the current market offers considerable value, suggesting a short-term rebound, and many communities are already buying the dip. However, this morning's lack of volume at 112,722, and the absence of a long lower shadow signaling a bottom, suggests a mid-term bottom has yet to be reached.
Therefore, those who want to buy with a light position can buy around 112000. Sister Bei is fully invested and will continue to wait and see if the pin bar breaks through 112000 to signal a bottom. It is best to wait for the second test to stabilize before considering entering the right side of the market. The positions added later are all for medium- to long-term layout. The low point of the fourth wave of Bitcoin's correction cannot be lower than the lowest point of the second wave of correction. Therefore, around 100,000 is the limit of the correction. There may not be such a good opportunity to buy on the train. This is also the major support level of the middle track of the weekly Bollinger Band and the moving average. Sister Bei will also buy on the train in batches.
Given that the second and third waves each span approximately one month, starting from the peak on July 14th, the fourth wave's correction will likely occur at least until late August. Crucially, the US stock market has yet to stabilize, requiring further observation next week. Therefore, those seeking a medium- to long-term investment should patiently wait for the market to develop and avoid rushing into the market. There are numerous opportunities to buy at the bottom over the next two to three weeks. By extending the period of increasing spot positions and entering the market in phases, we can mitigate temporary risks.
I previously added 30% to my PEPE position at a high, hoping for a rebound, but that hasn't been enough. This week, my floating profit in my real account has shrunk significantly. Combined with my previous withdrawals, the total market value is now only 1.97 million, leaving me with a floating profit of 340,000, a 21% return. If the market continues to fall, all my 17 weeks of bottom-fishing will be in vain. Looking back to August 5th of last year, I bought the dip at 49,000 and made a killing. Another year has passed. History repeats itself, and it's time for both bulls and bears to call each other fools. Can I pull off another miracle this time? Time will tell!
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