Since Sister Bei started building positions on April 7 at 580, it has been 17 weeks. The structure has formed a standard first wave bottom rebound, followed by a second wave pullback, and then the third wave ended hastily without fully developing, only rising to 1475 and not even touching the first wave high of 1632. Sister Bei's previous strategy of continuing to add positions during the pullback was quite simple, believing that PEPE would follow BONK and FLOKI to develop a similar three-wave trend, aiming for a final acceleration in the third wave. The original plan was to reduce positions near 1700 and then buy back at the low point of wave 4.
Coins that follow the trend often react passively. Currently, PEPE has begun to undergo a wave 4 pullback on the daily and weekly charts, so Sister Bei’s expectation of chasing highs has failed. The portion added at high levels is currently in a trapped state, but fortunately, the position is not large. From the current structure, we can see two rebound highs and two lows connecting, forming a weekly-level converging triangle area within the yellow line. The end of this triangle convergence area is expected to be no later than October 20. Hahaha, surely some will say, doesn’t that mean we have to wait until the flowers cool down? It’s better to run away quickly.
So besides patiently waiting for structural and trend changes, what else can be done? From a short-term perspective on the 4-hour level, the rising channel formed by wave 3 has effectively broken down. Yesterday's rebound from the lower channel line failed, and it has started to drop again. Therefore, the short-term outlook is bearish. The Fibonacci 0.236, which is around 1100, has some support, but the best entry point is still at the lower edge of the triangle convergence area, which is 970-1000. When this point arrives, Sister Bei plans to continue adding positions. Conversely, if it rises, I will reduce positions near the upper edge at 1400 to lower exposure. This is the short-term operation.
From a medium-term perspective, if this wave 4 adjustment is confirmed, it will likely stabilize and start the wave 5 rise after August 20. The point worth considering for a full investment in the medium term is around 830, which is the lowest point of the wave 2 decline. Theoretically, wave 4's pullback should not go lower. Additionally, the important support level at 800 has been tested repeatedly and is a key position for support and resistance conversion, so if such an opportunity arises, you must force yourself to be greedy!
From a long-term perspective, I still see it as bullish. I can't say how many times the rise will have at the peak of the upcoming season, but investing heavily around positions like 1000 and 800 could yield a double to 2000. For leading MEME coins like PEPE, with such good fundamentals and global consensus, achieving this double rise should be quite easy. If one day Musk and Trump casually promote it again, the upward potential will open up!
In this wave, the main force of PEPE has kept the rise low, and many people have already exited, lightening their holdings. The inverse is the movement of the weak, just like bamboo buried in the ground nurturing the explosive power to break through the soil. So cherish the opportunity of PEPE's pullback; it's still the same question—how long can it hold you until the end of August? Sister Bei will continue to hold firmly, and if there is a big drop, just go for it!
