August Non-Farm Day is Coming! Let’s eat meat together on Gen 🥩
1. The Triple Impact Logic of Non-Farm Data on Gold
The July Non-Farm Data to be released tonight at 20:30 will directly affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations in September:
🕹 Data worse than expected (new jobs < 110,000, unemployment rate > 4.2%)
Scenario: The market strengthens rate cut expectations, gold may break through 3311, short-term increase of 2%-3%.
Strategy: Light positions before data release, target 3328, stop loss at 3268.
🕹 Data in line with expectations (new jobs 110,000-130,000, unemployment rate 4.2%)
Scenario: Gold price maintains fluctuations, trading range narrows to 3280-3310.
Strategy: Buy in batches at support level 3281, high sell low buy.
🕹 Data better than expected (new jobs > 130,000, unemployment rate < 4.1%)
Scenario: Dollar strengthens in the short term, gold price dips to 3268, but medium to long-term supported by rate cut expectations.
Strategy: Do not chase shorts after breaking support, wait for stabilization signal to go long.
2. The 'Three-Step Operation Method' for Ordinary People
Before data release: Light probing
Strategy: Buy gold ETF near 3281, control position at 10%-15%.
Logic: If data is positive, gains can be made; if negative, losses are limited by support.
At the time of data release: Flexible response
Positive scenario: Add 5%-10% position after breaking 3311, target 3328, move stop loss up to 3300.
Negative scenario: Immediately stop loss if it breaks 3268, wait for 3246 for second bottom buying.
After data release: Take profits
Profit-taking rule: Gradually exit when reaching target, for example, take 50% profit at 3311, hold the rest to 3328.
Risk reminder: Volatility is severe within 2 hours after data release, avoid frequent trading.
3. Risk Avoidance Techniques on Non-Farm Day
1️⃣ Position management: No more than 30% in a single variety, invest no more than 30,000 in gold with a 100,000 capital.
2️⃣ Hedging strategy: Allocate gold ETF and dollar index ETF to reduce volatility risk.
3️⃣ Trailing stop loss: If gold price rises rapidly, move stop loss to cost price + 3 dollars, ensuring 'low-risk positions'.
‼️ Discipline Execution: Stop loss decisively at a 5% loss to avoid emotional holding.
Non-Farm Day is both a risk day and an opportunity day. Ordinary people do not need to accurately predict data; they just need to position themselves at key points and strictly execute discipline to turn uncertainty into profit. #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调 #美国初请失业金人数 #BTC #ETH
