[July 29th Cryptocurrency Market Analysis]
The U.S. SEC has approved the 'physical subscription and redemption' mechanism for BTC and ETH spot ETFs. While this is favorable for market liquidity and institutional participation in the medium to long term, the short-term impact has already been partly priced in, leading to risks of 'buying the news, selling the event'. At the same time, the delay of the Litecoin ETF and the crackdown on 'stablecoin scams' in multiple regions indicate that off-chain funding channels are tightening, and regulatory intensity is continuously increasing.
BTC remains within the 120K-116K range. The upper boundary of 120K has been repeatedly tested without success, combined with low-volume consolidation, suggesting that the market is on the brink of a change. A breakout above or a breakdown below the edges of the range on the daily chart will be a clear signal for the direction of August's market. In the short term, watch the 119K-120K resistance and the 116K support.
ETH remains strong, but trading volume continues to decline, forming a typical divergence between price and volume. A breakout with volume above 4000 points is necessary to maintain the upward momentum; otherwise, it will face adjustment risks, with short-term support around 3700.
Altcoins are performing weakly, with main funds clearly on the sidelines, lacking the momentum for sustained upward movement. This is not the right time for altcoin rallies; it is recommended that investors remain cautious and avoid heavy speculative positions in the short term, waiting for the trend to clarify before taking action.
