Ethereum Market on July 28, 2025
• New High Breakthrough: Ethereum (ETH) breaks $3940, setting a new high for 2025, just 22% away from the historical peak, but technical indicators (RSI at 84.74) show overbought conditions, indicating short-term pullback risks.
• Regulatory and Market Expectations: Although the GENIUS Act provides a regulatory framework for stablecoins, the SEC's recognition of Ethereum's securities status remains uncertain.
• PoS Network Dynamics: Approximately 660,000 ETH (about $2.54 billion) are queued to exit the Ethereum PoS network, while 263,000 ETH (about $1.01 billion) are waiting to join, reflecting market divergence (some stakers are taking profits while new funding is driven by institutional demand).
• Potential Liquidation Pressure: If Ethereum breaks $4000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $979 million.
Tonight's Opening Position Profit and Loss Reference as of today (2025-07-28 21:45)
Ethereum (ETH) is currently around 3,900 USDT, in a short-term "High-Range Fluctuation - Volume Divergence" state:
1. On-chain/Order Book Indicators
• 3,578 USDT is a densely packed liquidation line for bulls; a drop below this could trigger a chain liquidation level of $1.7 billion.
• The 3,958–3,990 USDT range is a dense area for short liquidations; breaking through this will accelerate upward.
• Large whales/smart money have shown "High-Range Reduction" actions in the past 24 hours; caution is advised when chasing highs in the short term.
2. Suitable Entry Range (Long Position)
① Retracement to 3,650–3,660 USDT (1h-EMA10 and 4h-S1 support overlap during the day)
② Deep retracement to 3,610–3,620 USDT (4h-S2 + previous low structure)
Build positions in batches, with a single position ≤20% leverage capital, total leverage ≤3 times.
3. Take Profit/Stop Loss (Long Position)
• Stop Loss: Set uniformly at 3,578 USDT (triggered means all stop loss to avoid spikes).
• Take Profit:
– First Target 3,888 USDT (previous high of the day / 4h-R1)
– Second Target 3,950 USDT (short liquidation zone)
– Leave 20% position to target 4,050 USDT (protecting the position after breakthrough)
4. If choosing to short (only for ultra-short-term high-leverage players)
• Entry: Signals of low-volume stagnation at 1h level in the 3,950–3,970 USDT range.
• Stop Loss: Above 3,990 USDT.
• Take Profit: 3,850 → 3,800 USDT.
Risk Control Reminder: Current RSI 78–80, showing continuous volume-price divergence, the probability of a short-term pullback is higher than continued one-way rise; be sure to set stop losses.
