Core events affecting Ethereum's trend on July 31, 2025
Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision (02:00 Beijing time) + Powell's press conference (02:30).
Market expectations are for 'no interest rate cut in July', but the dot plot and Powell's wording will determine the rise and fall of risk assets:
• If it suggests only one rate cut for the year (hawkish): ETH may briefly retrace to the 3,500–3,600 area.
• If it suggests two or more rate cuts (dovish): ETH is expected to challenge 4,000–4,040 USD, triggering short liquidations.
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Technical Levels Quick Reference (ETH/USDT)
Key Levels
Upper Resistance 3,940–4,000 Daily Bollinger upper band, short liquidation zone
Short-term Resistance 3,800–3,820 30min VWAP, multiple failed attempts intraday
Intraday Bull-Bear Threshold 3,709 4h Supertrend, falling below will quickly weaken
First Support 3,516 Daily Bollinger middle band + EMA20, last line of defense for bulls
Strong Support 3,090–3,100 Structural validation zone, breaking below will declare the end of this rebound
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Take Profit and Stop Loss Strategy (Short-term Contract Example)
• Already holding long positions
• Move up take profit: 3,950–4,000 (in batches, leave some for market action after the Fed)
• Move stop loss: 3,710 (below the 4h Supertrend), breaking below will liquidate all.
• No positions or preparing to go short
• Shorting on rebound: Build short positions in batches in the 3,940–4,000 area, stop loss above 4,050.
• Chasing shorts on breakdown: Confirm break below 3,700 before chasing shorts, stop loss at 3,760, target 3,516/3,300.
• Spot/low leverage
• Take profit: Reduce positions by 30–50% near 4,000, move stop loss of remaining position to 3,600 for breakeven.
• Adding positions: If it retraces to 3,500–3,550 after the overnight data and quickly recovers, can add back positions.
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Risk Reminder
1. Trading volume is key to distinguishing between real and false breakouts: a volume breakout above 3,940 can pursue long; a false breakout with low volume is likely to fall back.
2. Tonight's volatility is extremely high, contracts must lower leverage (≤3 times), keep 20% USDT in spot for pin risk.
3. If the Federal Reserve shows extreme hawkish signals, ETH's intraday low may quickly pierce 3,500; set up 'fishing orders' in the 3,450–3,500 range in advance.
