Tonight (July 30), the key driving factors for Ethereum's market are concentrated on three major events: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the White House's first digital asset policy report, and the 10th anniversary of Ethereum coinciding with the 'anniversary market'.
One, the logic of the impact of the three major events tonight
1. Federal Reserve FOMC (decision announced at 20:30 on July 30, Beijing time, Powell's press conference at 02:30)
• The market expects a 'wait and see' approach, with real volatility stemming from Powell's hints on the September interest rate cut.
• If any dovish wording appears, risk assets (including ETH) will rise in the short term; if hawkish or hints of delaying interest rate cuts, then positive expectations become negative, and ETH will quickly retest $3,700 or even lower.
2. White House digital asset policy report (to be released on the evening of July 30, Beijing time)
• If the report confirms 'Bitcoin strategic reserve' or allows ETH ETF staking, it would be a significant positive surprise, potentially igniting ETH's assault on $4,000, causing a short squeeze (on-chain data shows that breaking $4,000 would trigger $200 million in short liquidations).
• If the wording is severe or delays ETF staking, the market will quickly give back recent gains.
3. Ethereum's 10th Anniversary
• High social media sentiment, on-chain whales and market makers may exploit emotions to create 'high and low' or 'drop then rise' market movements.
Two, two scenarios for ETH tonight's projection and entry plan
┌──────────────┬─────────────────────────────┐
│ Scenario A: Positive Resonance (≥60%) │ Scenario B: Negative Resonance (≤40%) │
├──────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
│ • Powell hints at a September rate cut │ • Powell is hawkish + regulatory negative │
│ • The White House report clearly supports ETH ETF staking │ • ETH falls below $3,700 │
│ • ETH quickly breaks through 3,880–3,900 │ • Retests the 3,630–3,680 area │
└──────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
1. Short-term swing trades (suitable for 2–6 hours holding)
① Scenario A long
Entry: 3,730–3,760 (retest 15 min EMA21 or 3,700 not breaking)
Stop loss: 3,680 (lower Bollinger Band on daily chart)
First target: 3,880–3,900 (previous high/7-week high)
Second target: 4,000–4,050 (trigger short squeeze zone)
Position: ≤20% of capital, leverage ≤5 times
② Scenario B short
Entry: 3,830–3,860 (15 min shows long upper shadow + MACD dead cross)
Stop loss: 3,900 (breakout of 7-week high means giving up)
Target: 3,700→3,630→3,500 (laddered take profit)
Position: ≤15% of capital, leverage ≤5 times
2. Breakout follow-up orders (suitable for 30-minute levels)
• If ETH closes above $3,925 on the 5 min chart before 22:00, you can directly market buy, stop loss at 3,880, target 4,000–4,050.
• If the volume falls below 3,680, you can go short, stop loss at 3,730, target 3,630–3,500.
3. Low leverage grid/spot orders (suitable for overnight)
• Place grid orders with a $50 interval between 3,630–3,830, total position ≤30%, to prevent stop-loss from being triggered in a sudden market crash at night.
Three, enforce discipline
1. Be sure to place stop-loss orders at entry price ±$50, 30 minutes before the event, to prevent slippage.
2. Perpetual contract leverage unified ≤5 times, prohibits over 10 times leverage.
3. If there is a fluctuation >±3% during Powell's speech at 02:30, manually close positions immediately without any additional buying.
Summary in one sentence
Tonight, ETH's decisive factor is the '3,700 dollar watershed + White House report'.
Follow the trend with longs when positive news is realized, go short when negative news materializes, strictly adhere to stop-loss, and trade lightly and quickly.