The global financial market is going to explode this week! The Federal Reserve's meeting hasn’t started yet, but the market is already buzzing. The Trump administration has announced it wants to 'change leadership', and the shadow of trade tariffs hasn’t dissipated, yet key data such as U.S. Q2 GDP, July non-farm payrolls, and core inflation are all set to be released at this time—after this 'data nuclear explosion', will the Federal Reserve cut rates or not? Can the crypto market soar with this momentum?
Next week's U.S. economic data is key to determining the Federal Reserve's next move. GDP growth is said to rebound to 2.4%, but a closer look reveals it's mainly supported by a narrowing trade deficit; we still can’t say if domestic demand and manufacturing have truly warmed up; new job growth in July is likely to slow down, and the unemployment rate may slightly rise; if the job market cools down, the Federal Reserve may feel more confident about cutting rates; but June's core PCE inflation might accelerate, with tariff costs passed on to consumers, making the rate cut plan likely to face a dilemma.
Right now, most people in the market feel that the Federal Reserve will hold steady, but once the data comes out, the plot could flip at any moment. If GDP is strong, employment is stable, and inflation drops, the Federal Reserve will likely continue to keep rates unchanged; but if GDP looks lively but is actually weak, employment is sluggish, and inflation sticks around, the calls for a rate cut will definitely be louder, and Bitcoin might surge to a new historical high; if the data is all over the place and contradictory, market volatility will absolutely skyrocket.
Cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to policy shifts. If rate cut expectations materialize, the crypto market might welcome a triple joy: first, after a rate cut, money will seek high returns, and Bitcoin ETFs have paved the way for institutions; as funds pour in, prices will surely rise; second, if the dollar weakens, the value of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' will be even more pronounced; third, once market sentiment is ignited, it’s not impossible for Bitcoin to surge to $100,000.
But it makes me a bit anxious. If the U.S. economic data is strong, the Federal Reserve might take a 'hawkish' approach, and the crypto market is sure to correct in the short term; with the change in the Trump administration, policies will keep changing, and the market will be in chaos; plus, global regulation has been suppressing, if any negative news emerges, no one will be able to withstand the selling pressure.
Next week’s data and the Federal Reserve's decision will definitely be a watershed moment for the crypto market this year. Will it ride the tailwind to glory, or will it crash and burn in the short term? It's hard to say. But with such large market fluctuations, if you really want to take action, you must think it through. This week’s 'data nuclear explosion' and decision are bound to leave a mark in the crypto world. Keep an eye on the market movements, and don't act impulsively!
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