【Is ADA on the verge of a surge?】0.88 is a critical level for bulls and bears, don't miss it and wait another six months!
In a nutshell: The current price of ADA is 0.8827, currently stuck between POC 0.745 above and the sell wall of 0.86-0.95. If it breaks through 0.90 with volume, it will confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. A pullback to 0.86 without breaking it can be a low buy; a drop below 0.85 will trigger a stop loss, and watch out for the 24h contract position risk of a -4.7% short covering.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchoring: POC 0.745 (602M transaction), the price has strayed far from 1.8×ATR in the last two days, indicating strong mean reversion demand.
2. HVN buffer zone: 0.722-0.735 (390-576M) and 0.855-0.875 (470-483M) form two levels of support/resistance, the price touching near 0.86 will reach the upper edge of the HVN below, providing conditions for a rebound.
3. LVN gap: 0.85-0.86 is a low transaction vacuum, after breaking through it will accelerate; above, 0.93-0.94 is also a gap, if it breaks through with volume, it can expect 0.98.
4. 70% transaction area: 0.581-0.895, the current price is at the upper edge, short-term overbought but not diverging yet.
Momentum verification
• In the 0.86-0.88 area, Up Vol accounts for 64%, buyers are active; above 0.90, Up Vol suddenly drops to 48%, selling pressure increases.
• In the last 4 hours, transaction volume shrank to 0.7 times the 20-day average, waiting for volume confirmation of direction.
Auxiliary indicators
• 1h Bollinger Bands: The price is sticking to the upper band, bandwidth narrowing, indicating a potential change.
• MA200 is 0.821, with a deviation of 7.5%, if it pulls back without breaking, it is still healthy.
• Contract OI fell 4.7% in 24h, the long/short ratio rose to 3.42, shorts reducing positions push prices up, beware of a reversal of short squeezing ending.
Trading strategies
Aggressive: Buy on pullback at 0.861±0.002, stop loss at 0.848 (-1.5%), target 0.900/0.930, risk-reward ratio 3.2.
Conservative: Buy on breakout above 0.900 with a 15m bullish candle, stop loss at 0.888, target 0.930/0.950, risk-reward ratio 2.8.
Cautious: Sell on break below 0.848, stop loss at 0.861, target 0.825, risk-reward ratio 1.8.
Risk warning
• There is dense HVN below 0.85, if it breaks down with volume, it may trigger a long squeeze.
• The spot market has seen a net outflow of -12.7M for five consecutive days, if it continues, the position should be reduced.
• Macro risk: A rebound in the US dollar index or a deep correction in BTC will suppress ADA.
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