AVAAI has dropped another 9.3% in 24h, the price is close to the lower bound of the Bollinger Band, short-term bearish sentiment is extremely strong; if the support at 0.038 is breached, it may drop to 0.026, but the buying in the 0.043 value anchor area is still present, aggressive traders can take small long positions in the 0.038-0.040 range, stop loss at 0.037, target at 0.043, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.5; if it breaks below 0.038, then reverse to short, target 0.026, stop loss 0.0395. Large liquidity gap, must control position ≤ 1%.

[Key Ranges and Volume Distribution]
1. Value anchoring area (POC): 0.0435 (30 million USDT traded, Up/Down ≈ 56:44, slightly bullish dominance).
2. High volume buffer zone:
• 0.0311-0.0323 (HVN, 23 million USDT, bullish share 54%), price tends to rebound easily when it falls here;
• 0.0424-0.0439 (HVN, 25 million USDT, bullish share 61%), first target for rebound.
3. Low volume gap:
• 0.0261-0.0280 (LVN, only 24-33 million USDT, Up>70%), once it breaks below 0.038, it will quickly drop to this level.
4. 70% volume coverage area: 0.0308-0.0536, current price at 0.0394 located at the lower edge of this area, short-term oversold.

[Momentum Verification]
• Near 0.038 latest 15m Up/Down = 55:45, buying slightly ahead, but the volume is only 0.8 times the average of the previous 20 candles, not confirming reversal.
• Volume in the 0.043-0.045 range is decreasing, bullish momentum is weakening; if it breaks above 0.043 with increased volume and Up>60%, a stage rebound can be confirmed.

[Auxiliary Indicator]
• MA200=0.0462, deviation -14.8%, medium-term bearish dominance.
• Bollinger Band 1h lower bound 0.0381, current price is close, RSI 42, not in extreme oversold, still has room to drop.
• Contract positions 24h -2.5%, funding rate +0.024%, bears are adding positions but the rate is not extreme, beware of short squeeze.

[Market Cycle]
Entering the medium-term downward C segment, short-term oversold fluctuation; if a long lower shadow with increased volume appears in the 0.038-0.040 range, it may enter a rebound B segment, otherwise, the main decline of the bear market will continue.

[Trading Strategy]
1. Short-term bullish (aggressive):
• Entry: 0.0385±0.0005 (upper edge of LVN + lower bound of Bollinger Band), waiting for 1h bullish candle close confirmation.
• Stop Loss: 0.0370 (recent HVN above 0.0311 + 0.5×ATR 0.0015).
• Target: 0.0435 (POC), risk-reward ratio = (0.0435-0.0385)/(0.0385-0.037)=3.3.
2. Bearish pursuit:
• Trigger: Break below 0.038 and 1h close Down>60% with increased volume.
• Entry: 0.0378, stop loss 0.0395, target 0.0265, risk-reward ratio = (0.0378-0.0265)/(0.0395-0.0378)=6.6.

[Risk Control Tips]
• Key failure: Daily close below 0.037 or failed breakout above 0.043 with volume.
• Large liquidity gap, thin orders, avoid large market orders; single risk ≤ 1%, total leverage ≤ 3 times.

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