Spot 0.3708 is stuck just below the 1h Bollinger upper band, the 70% trading dense zone 0.320-0.370 is at its upper edge, if it breaks 0.378 with volume can chase long; if it falls back to 0.363 LVN, the probability of pulling back to POC 0.341 increases sharply, stop loss 0.360, risk-reward ratio 2.4. The contract funding rate is slightly positive, and positions decreased by 27% in 24h, beware of bullish liquidation.
[Key Intervals and Volume Distribution]
1. Value Anchoring Area
POC = 0.3407 (817 million USDT), upper UpVol 54% slightly dominates, serving as the core defense line for bulls.
2. High Volume Area (HVN)
0.334-0.345 five consecutive HVN form a 'buffer pad', prices falling to this area tend to stop falling and rebound.
3. Low Volume Gap (LVN)
0.363-0.365, 0.378-0.380 two LVNs, the former is a pullback buying point, the latter is a breakout acceleration point.
4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Area
0.320-0.370, current price is close to the upper edge, short-term is on the verge of 'mildly overbought'.
[Momentum Verification]
• 0.363 LVN area UpVol 66%, bullish dominance; 0.378 LVN UpVol only 48%, if it breaks with volume, it needs to be reconfirmed.
• 4h level contract net outflow 2.1 m → bullish short covering, if it continues to expand, the probability of a pullback to POC is high.
[Auxiliary Indicator]
• MA200 = 0.349, deviates by 6.2%, still a healthy bullish.
• 1h Bollinger Bands are narrowing, upper band 0.3778 overlaps with sell wall 0.378, forming a natural resistance.
• Contract long-short ratio rises from 2.13 to 2.24, short-term bulls dominate but growth rate slows.
[Market Cycle]
The medium term is in the 'bottom raising' oscillation phase: 30-day increase of 12.8%, but 2M decrease of 42%, belongs to the tail end of a bear market rebound → if it breaks 0.42, it will confirm trend reversal, otherwise maintain the 0.29-0.42 range.
[Trading Strategy]
A. Aggressive Long: Current price 0.371, lightly chase long, stop loss 0.363 (lower edge of LVN), target 0.390/0.420, risk-reward ratio 2.4.
B. Conservative Long: Wait for a pullback to 0.363 LVN, enter when ≥1.5 times average volume bullish line and UpVol > 60%, stop loss 0.359, target 0.378-0.390, risk-reward ratio 2.8.
C. Conservative Short: If 1h closes below 0.363, can reverse to short, stop loss 0.367, target POC 0.341, risk-reward ratio 2.2.
[Risk Control Tips]
• Key Failure: Losing 0.359 will trigger a bullish liquidation, next support at 0.341.
• Liquidity: Sell wall above 0.378 is 240,000 USDT, requires 2x volume to effectively break.
• Position: Single transaction risk ≤ 1%, avoid high volatility periods (UTC+8 20:00-22:00).
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