#lagrange @Lagrange Official
【Title】
"LA short-term surge of 11% breaks away from MA200! Value anchor 0.358 becomes the battleground for bulls and bears, should we dip buy or chase high and get trapped?"
【Quick Overview】
LA current price 0.3898, has broken out of the upper edge of the 70% value area 0.531, short-term overbought + contract reduction of 2.37%, if it dips back to the high volume area 0.358-0.362, can long at low, stop loss at 0.354, target 0.404, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.5; if it breaks down 0.354 with volume, then reverse to short.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value anchoring area: POC 0.35866, Up Volume 56% above, Down Volume 44% below, balance between bulls and bears, need to wait for second confirmation.
2. High trading volume area: 0.337-0.362 forms continuous HVN, a total of 7 lines, cumulative volume exceeds 1.5 billion, forming a strong support zone for dips; above 0.404-0.406 is a secondary HVN, can be considered short-term take profit.
3. Low trading volume gap: LVN 0.32407, about 16% away from the current price, if it quickly breaks below 0.354, it will form a liquidity vacuum, can follow the trend to short.
4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 0.3327-0.5316, current price is on the inner side of the upper edge, short-term entering overbought territory.
【Momentum Verification】
• POC area Up Volume 56%, not forming an absolute dominance, need to observe volume when it dips back; if the volume in the 0.358-0.362 area exceeds 60% Up Volume, considered as bulls re-accumulating.
• 1h Bollinger Bands: price close to the upper band at 70% percentile, RSI 57, not extreme; MA200 deviates by 11%, needs mean reversion.
【Market Cycle】
Mid-term still in bottoming oscillation (13-day perspective), short-term rebound driven by contract increase of 19.23%, but funding rate only 0.00005, bullish leverage is moderate, not overheated.
【Trading Strategy】
• Low long: enter when a shrinking Pin Bar or 15m Up Volume > 60% appears in the 0.358-0.362 interval, stop loss at 0.354 (outside of LVN), target 0.404, risk-reward ratio 2.5.
• High short: if it breaks down 0.354 with volume, short on pullback to 0.356-0.358, stop loss at 0.362, target 0.324, risk-reward ratio 2.8.
• Positioning: single trade risk ≤ 1%, ATR ≈ 0.012, leverage ≤ 5 times.
【Risk Warning】
• Contract 1h reduced by 2.37%, if continue to reduce + break below 0.354, strategy is invalid.
• Continuous net outflow of 1.66M in spot, if expands to above 3M, high probability of ending rebound.
• Avoid 30 minutes before and after the US stock market opening and contract delivery, to prevent slippage.
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