#caldera @Caldera Official
ERA current price 1.268, at the bottom of the 5-day value area, POC above 1.243 accounts for 70% of buying; short-term pullback to LVN 1.22-1.25 is a buying window, stop loss at 1.20, looking up at the 1.48 area HVN, risk/reward ratio 1:3; note that contract positions have decreased by 35% for 7 consecutive days, if it breaks below 1.20, the bullish structure will be invalid.
[Key Interval Structure & Volume Distribution]
1. Value Anchoring Area
POC = 1.243, trading volume in the last 24 hours is 280 million units, Up Volume 70%, is the core defense line for bulls.
2. High Volume Node (HVN)
• 1.22-1.25: Buffer zone, a short-term pullback to this level is likely to trigger buying rebounds.
• 1.48-1.52: Strong resistance above, also the first target for the short term.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN)
• 1.20-1.21: Sparse trading, if the price breaks down with volume, it will quickly slide to 1.16.
• 1.96-2.05: Distant gap, may accelerate towards the top after a mid-term breakout at 1.75.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area
0.20-1.85, current price is at the 73% percentile of the range, not yet overbought.
[Momentum Validation]
• POC Area Up/Down = 70/30, buyers are dominant.
• Recent 4-hour trading volume is 1.4 times the average, combined with RSI 58, bullish momentum continues.
[Auxiliary Judgment]
• Bollinger Bands: Price is close to the upper band 1.289, deviation rate 74%, short-term needs to pull back to the middle band 1.248 to gather strength.
• MA200 = 1.314, current price -3.5%, still in the mid-term recovery phase.
• Contract positions decreased by 35% over 7 days, shorts continue to reduce positions, selling pressure eases.
[Market Cycle]
Mid-term is in the transition phase of 'consolidation and bottoming → initial rally'; if the short-term holds the 1.20-1.25 area, it is expected to enter a new round of upward wave.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Entry
Aggressive: 1.248-1.253 (Bollinger Bands middle band + POC) place long orders;
Conservative: 1.230-1.238 (upper edge of LVN) buy on pullback.
2. Stop Loss
1.198 (below HVN 1.20 outer -0.5×ATR).
3. Target
First target 1.48 (upper HVN), second target 1.75 (distant HVN).
4. Risk/Reward Ratio
(1.48-1.25)/(1.25-1.198)=3.0:1.
[Risk Warning]
• If it breaks down with volume below 1.20, bullish structure is damaged, stop loss immediately.
• Contract positions are still declining, beware of sudden sell-offs.
• Single position ≤1%, avoid operating during low liquidity periods.
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