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「TIA breaks below 2.2, fear spreads? Three-step bottom-fishing plan to seize 20%+ oversold rebound!」
Quick Overview
TIA down 4.1% in 24h, contract positions have flowed out 21M over 4 days, price has dropped to around 2.08, the lower edge of the 70% transaction zone; if it bounces back at LVN 2.02-2.05, a strong bullish candle can be seized for a rebound, target 2.18-2.25, stop loss at 1.98, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8. Be cautious if it breaks 1.95 with volume, then the trend turns bearish.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor: POC 1.95 (45.7M transactions)
• HVN Buffer: 1.90-1.96 (bullish chips concentrated), 1.60-1.64 (early bullish cost)
• LVN Gap: 2.02-2.05 (thin transactions, quick crossing area)
• 70% Value Zone: 1.57-2.25, current price at the lower edge, lightly oversold
Momentum Validation: Up Volume at around 2.05 accounts for 61%, short-term buying pressure starts to dominate; Down Volume in the range of 1.95-2.00 above POC is only 46%, selling pressure is limited.
Cycle Judgment
Medium-term still in a bearish downward channel (12M contract net outflow -567M), but short-term experienced rapid deleveraging (4h-3d positions declining continuously), entering an oversold rebound window.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Current price 2.14, small position long, stop loss at 1.98 (below HVN 1.95), target 2.25, risk-reward ratio 2.8
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to LVN 2.02-2.05 to appear a 15m engulfing or Pinbar, stop loss at 1.98, target 2.18-2.20, risk-reward ratio 2.5
Cautious: Chase long after breaking above 2.25 with volume (Up Volume > 60%), stop loss at 2.12, target 2.40, risk-reward ratio 2.3
Risk Warning
• If 1.95 POC is lost, it will trigger bullish stop losses, quickly probing down to 1.80
• Before the contract funding rate turns positive and positions rebound, treat the rebound as short-term
• Avoid the opening of US stocks and the release of macro data, strictly control position ≤ 1%
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