[ETH 'Squat' or Reverse Pickup?] $3700 Lifeline: Follow the Trend or Cut Loss?
Summary in one sentence: ETH fell nearly 3% in 24 hours, with continuous net outflow of contract positions for 4 days (-457k), and the price is currently retesting the lower boundary of the 70% value zone; if it holds above 3666 LVN, a rebound to 3756 HVN can be speculated, if it loses this level, it will quickly test POC 2965. Use caution with high leverage, position ≤ 1%.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor: POC 2965 (maximum transaction, UpVol 59%)
• High Volume Buffer: HVN1 3756 (UpVol 49%, selling pressure slightly higher), HVN2 3612 (UpVol 54%, bulls defending)
• Low Volume Gap: LVN 3666-3684 (transaction volume <50k, breakout/retest acceleration zone)
• 70% Transaction Zone: 2515-3792, current price near the upper boundary → lightly overbought
Momentum Validation
• 3666-3684 LVN: UpVol 59%, buyers slightly dominate; if volume recovers above 3684, it is considered a false breakdown
• 3756 HVN: UpVol 49%, dense selling wall, a rebound to this level requires volume; otherwise, it will fall back
• Contract OI 1d -0.27%, funding rate +0.01%, short covering has not yet started → rebound momentum remains weak
Auxiliary Indicators
• Bollinger Bands 1h: Price touching the lower band, bandwidth narrowing → waiting for direction choice
• MA200 3444, deviation +7.4%, mid-term trend still upward, providing a long-distance safety cushion
• Order Book: Sell orders/Buy orders = 1.39, but near-end buy orders are more by 2.68 million → short-term may have support
Market Cycle
The mid-term bull market structure has not broken (monthly K still above MA200), short-term entering the 'High Position Fluctuation - Washing Out' phase, range 3612-3792.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Current price 3701 retesting LVN 3666±5, stop loss 3640 (outside HVN 3630), target 3756 HVN, risk-reward ratio ≈2.1
Conservative: Wait for 15m close to regain above 3684 with volume (UpVol >60%) to chase long, stop loss 3660, target 3756/3803 upper band, risk-reward ratio ≈2.6
Cautious: If volume breaks below 3666, short near 3675 on rebound, stop loss 3705, target 3612/POC 2965, risk-reward ratio ≈3.4
Risk Warning
• Macro: Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is approaching, volatility may surge
• On-chain: Whale addresses have net outflow of 12k ETH in the past 12 hours, pay attention to selling pressure
• Invalidity: If 1h close falls below 3630 (lower HVN) or >70% DownVol occurs above 3756, immediately cut loss/reverse
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