Price has risen above MA200 and holding cost by more than 10%, 24h volume and price both rising but 1h contract positions surged by 6.9% and the long-short ratio declined, short term still has momentum for high; if retraces to 0.0401–0.0403 LVN with volume recovery can go long, if it loses 0.0387 HVN then reverse to short. Stop loss ±3.5%, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4, be cautious of the huge sell wall at 0.119 that can suppress at any time.
Key Interval and Transaction Volume Structure
• Value anchoring zone: POC 0.0311, the largest transaction area in 2 weeks, current price has deviated by 31%, in a 'price far from value' state, there is mean reversion gravity.
• High Transaction Volume Zone (HVN):
1) 0.0408–0.0415: Continuous 4 levels of HVN, total transaction 1.94 billion pieces, form the current bullish buffer zone; Up Volume accounts for 58%, slightly bullish.
2) 0.0307–0.0313: Core chip peak below, if quickly broken below 0.0387 HVN will point to this area.
• Low Transaction Volume Gap (LVN):
1) 0.0401–0.0403: Recent LVN, if it retraces without breaking, can be seen as a bullish accumulation point.
2) 0.0334–0.0350: Mid-term vacuum zone, once broken below 0.0387 will accelerate downward.
• 70% Transaction Volume Coverage Zone: 0.0307–0.0432, current price is near the upper edge, short term is at the edge of overbought.
• Momentum validation: 0.0408–0.0415 area Up Volume 58%, did not reach 60% strong bullish standard, be cautious when chasing highs.
Market Cycle Judgment
Short term is at the 'strong rebound end': daily rise for 3 days, contract funding rate slightly negative, showing bullish leverage heating up; but 7–30 day contract net outflow accumulated -790M, long term still in a bear market rebound stage, may test the bottom again at any time.
Trading Strategy
• Aggressive long: if retraces to 0.04015 LVN with 15m bullish engulfing candle and Up Volume ≥ 60%, enter at 0.0402, stop loss at 0.0387 (recent HVN lower -0.5×ATR≈0.0015), target 0.0429 (upper band)/0.0447 (upper LVN), risk-reward ratio 2.4.
• Conservative long: wait for price to return to 0.0387–0.0390 HVN with volume recovery, enter at 0.0388, stop loss at 0.0372, target 0.0415, risk-reward ratio 2.0.
• Reverse short: if 1h closes below 0.0387 and Down Volume ≥ 55%, enter at 0.0386, stop loss at 0.0400, target at 0.0365, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
Risk Warning
• There is a sell wall of 235k at 0.119 above, if triggered, will instantly retract more than 15%.
• Contract positions increased too quickly in 1h, if the long-short ratio drops below 2.0 or funding rate turns positive, the risk of long liquidation is high.
• Spot has net outflow for 5 consecutive days, rebound lacks follow-up from the spot market, beware of false breakthroughs.
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