Current BTC price is 119370, closely touching the 1h Bollinger upper band and RSI at 69, sell orders are 3.5 times the buy orders, facing short-term selling pressure at 120k-121k; if it retraces to 118k-117.7k high volume area for support, a short-term buy to 120.8k is possible, stop loss 117.2k, risk/reward ratio ≈2.3; breaking below 117k would shift to a short position, target 116k. Note the funding rate turning positive and continuous 7-day net outflow in contract OI, chasing highs may lead to being trapped.

[Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution]
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC 118008 (nearly 78k BTC traded) serves as a pivot for bulls and bears, with the price above it by 1.1%, indicating a short-term bullish bias testing higher levels.
2. High Volume Zone:
• 118746-119042 (HVN, 50k+ BTC) — If it retraces to this range, buy orders will provide strong support.
• 117860-118156 (POC extension) — Confirmation zone for pullbacks; a break below would damage the bullish structure.
3. Low Volume Gap: 119928-120223 (LVN, only 23k BTC) — There's a vacuum above; breaking through 120.2k will accelerate towards 121.4k; conversely, it could be a false breakout trap.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 108557-120076, current price is at the upper 94% percentile, nearing short-term overbought conditions.

[Momentum Verification]
• 118746-119042 range Up/Down Volume 53%: 47%, momentum balanced;
• 120k-120.4k Up Volume only 56%, no absolute advantage for buyers, exercise caution when chasing highs.

[Auxiliary Judgment]
• Bollinger Bands: Price touches the upper band at 119279, divergence 102%, short-term overheating.
• MA200: 118474, divergence +0.76%, still within healthy bullish territory.
• Contract Open Interest: 1d OI change +1.27%, but 7d cumulative -3.5%, indicating long-term capital withdrawal.

[Market Cycle]
In the mid-stage oscillation of a bull market, short-term rhythm of 'spike - pullback - re-spike', macro environment has not turned bearish, but leverage funds are cautious.

[Trading Strategy]
1. Short-term pullback buy (conservative)
Entry: 118000-118200 (LVN upper range + MA200 protection)
Stop Loss: 117200 (below HVN 117122 outside -0.5×ATR≈600)
Target: 120800 (next HVN 120666)
Risk/Reward Ratio: (120800-118100)/(118100-117200)=2.3

2. Breakout buy (aggressive)
Entry: 120400 on volume breakout LVN and 15m Up Volume ≥ 1.5× average
Stop Loss: 119600 (retest breakout level)
Target: 121400 (HVN 121257)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.0

3. Reverse short (conservative)
Trigger: Break below 117000 and 1h close below MA200
Entry: 116950
Stop Loss: 117750 (above HVN outside)
Target: 116000 (HVN 116531)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.9

[Risk Warning]
• Sell wall at 49M USDT overhead; if quickly consumed, avoid short positions.
• Funding rate turning positive, chasing highs may lead to being squeezed by bulls.
• If macro conditions lead to ETF outflows or regulatory negatives, the probability of breaking below 117k support increases significantly.
• Positioning: Single trade risk ≤1%, avoid high leverage.

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