Did ICP fall out of the golden pit? 5.5 value anchor + 6.0 high pressure zone, do you dare to buy the dip or wait for a breakout?
Quick Overview
ICP current price is 5.946, having dropped back to the lower edge of the 70% trading dense zone, short-term buying pressure accumulates but contract longs continue to decrease; if it retraces to 5.53 POC and does not break, a small long position can be taken, targets at 5.75/6.00 two levels HVN, stop loss at 5.45, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4; if it breaks down with volume below 5.45, then reverse to short, looking down to 5.25. Beware of macro risks leading to an expansion of liquidity gaps.
Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution
• Value Anchor Zone: POC 5.532, 7.22 million traded in two weeks, intense long-short turnover, regarded as a short-term dividing line.
• High Volume Areas: three major HVN at 5.468–5.553, 5.596–5.617, 6.001–6.045, with the heaviest selling pressure above 6.00–6.05.
• Low Volume Gaps: upward LVN 5.89–5.91, downward LVN 4.65–4.70, easily crossed after a breakout.
• 70% Volume Coverage Area: 4.76–6.15, current price is in the lower-middle part of the range, technically not overbought.
• Momentum Verification: Up Vol around POC accounts for 46%, balanced between long and short; Down Vol in the 6.00–6.05 area accounts for 61%, with shorts in control.
• Bollinger Bands: Middle band 5.96, lower band 5.96, price oscillating near the lower band, RSI 33, short-term oversold but not diverged.
• Contract Positions: Past 24h OI -2.43%, funding rate +0.01%, dominant long liquidations, and short position increases are slowing down.
Market Cycle Judgment
Mid-term still in a large box range (4.4–6.2), short-term in a fluctuating downward segment, if 5.45 is lost, it may start a new round of bottom-seeking.
Trading Strategies
① Buy on pullback (Conservative): If a volume-contraction stopping PinBar appears in the 5.53–5.55 area, enter a long position, stop loss at 5.45 -0.02 (-1.5%), first target 5.75 (HVN), second target 6.00, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
② Follow short on breakout (Aggressive): If the 15-minute candlestick breaks down 5.45 with volume, follow with a short position, stop loss at 5.52 (+1.3%), target 5.25 (HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1.
③ Conservative Observation: Wait for the price to rise above 6.05 and Up Vol > 60% before considering a long, stop loss at 5.90.
Risk Warning
• Macroeconomic negatives or expanding liquidity gaps may breach 5.45; if OI continues to decline sharply, strategy ① will be invalid.
• Single position ≤ 1%, avoid heavy positions during low liquidity periods in Asia.
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