“FIL 2.9 USD Lifeline! All long and short positions are stacked here, if it stands firm, it will surge to 3.3; if it breaks down, it will head straight to 2.6—Is this the last train?”

【Quick Overview】

FIL current price 2.857, just stuck between the upper edge of the 70% transaction area at 2.86 and the value anchor POC at 2.63; the order book buy order is suppressed by 1.97 times, and the contract funding rate is slightly positive, indicating short-term rebound demand. However, positions have been continuously reduced in the 4h-12h timeframe, with large orders hanging at 3.3-5.0 forming a ceiling. If 2.7 is lost, it will trigger a chain stop loss. Strategy: Long at 2.75±0.02 on a pullback, stop loss 2.68, target 2.93/3.05, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4; if it breaks below 2.68, reverse to short, stop loss 2.75, target 2.60/2.46.

【Key Interval Structure】

1. Value Anchor Area: POC 2.629 (2.623-2.635), with a total of 20.84 million units traded in the past two weeks, slightly biased towards bearish balance (Up 45%).

2. High Volume Area (HVN):

• 2.585-2.601 (16.24-19.21 million units) forms a lower buffer zone;

• 2.861-2.889 (20.03-20.20 million units) constitutes the current resistance.

3. Low Volume Gap (LVN):

• 2.175-2.220 (<262 million units) is a vacuum zone, and once it breaks below 2.46, it will slide quickly;

• 3.016-3.032 (<315 million units) is an upper short trap, and a volume breakout could directly surge to 3.3.

4. 70% Transaction Area: 2.253-2.950, current price at the upper edge, short-term not overbought, but close to the seller's dense area.

【Momentum Verification】

• Near 2.86 Up 51%, no obvious dominance formed;

• Near 2.75 Up to 63%, short-term buying concentrated;

• 4h contract reduced by 0.87%, volume-price divergence, rebound sustainability to be confirmed.

【Market Cycle】

Mid-term still in the late stage of a bear market rebound: 14-day positions ↑54%, price ↑23%, but 6-12 month contracts net outflow -507M, long-term funds continue to retreat, overall defined as the “oversold followed by oscillation building a top” stage.

【Trading Strategy】

1. Bullish (Conservative):

Entry 2.75-2.76 (pullback to VAL+LVN upper edge), stop loss 2.68 (lower HVN 2.585 outer side), target 2.93 (VAH), 3.05 (next LVN), risk-reward ratio 2.4.

2. Bearish (Cautious):

If breaks below 2.68 and 15m closes Down Volume >60%, chase shorts, stop loss 2.75, target 2.60/2.46, risk-reward ratio 2.1.

3. Positioning: Single trade risk 1%, ATR(14)=0.048, bullish position ≈2.1×leverage, bearish similarly.

$FIL